Financial Markets and Economy
Investors Start Doubting Oil Rally After Failure to Top $55 (Bloomberg)
The oil market’s failure to break out of the tightest range in more than a decade is sapping investor interest.
What China’s Premier Left Unsaid Raises Speculation About Yuan (The Wall Street Journal)
A subtle change to Beijing’s familiar language on its exchange-rate policy suggests that China’s leadership is preparing for more volatile currency moves this year, as global political and economic uncertainties mount.
US Exit From WTO Would Unravel Global Trade (PIIE)
In his latest attack on US trade policy, Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump has threatened to exit the 163-country World Trade Organization (WTO), which the United States played a leading role in creating and fostering.
The heads of continental Europe's biggest economies meet in the gilded splendor of the Palace of Versailles on Monday, seeking ways of strengthening an EU facing Britain's exit and mounting populism.
The Uncertain Future of U.S. Trade Policy (Council On Foreign Relations)
Experts discuss the economic and political challenges facing U.S. trade policy, how to proceed in the current political climate, and policy options for the future direction of U.S. trade.
The Trump Presidency: An Embarrassment for Those Who Believe in the Market (Naked Capitalist)
After his election, it was difficult to predict what President Trump would do. In the election campaign he said everything and the opposite of everything: from a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports to the reintroduction of the separation of commercial and investment banks, from an aggressive use of antitrust authority to the total abolishment of Dodd-Frank, the financial regulation that was enacted after the crisis. After two months, it is clear that the Trump industrial policy will be pro-business, not pro-market.
New Affordable Housing? The $10,000 3D House Built In 24 Hours (Confounded Interest)
Several companies have produced single-family detached homes for around $10,000 and can be built in 24 hours.
Chart: How Bitcoin Reached Parity With Gold (Visual Capitalist)
Would you rather have one bitcoin, or a single ounce of gold?
Real Subjects Have No Arbiter (Library of Economics and Liberty)
When you challenge the morality of the status quo, people usually leap to its defense. After a few rounds of argument, though, defenders of the status quo often retreat to meta-ethics.
A Guide to Reading for Investors (Plus, What Prof. Sanjay Bakshi Reads) (Safal Niveshak)
Long time readers of Safal Niveshak blog and attendees to my investing workshops know my dislike for reading newspapers. The dislike is so deep that I’ve not had a newspaper subscription at my home for the past six years now, and neither do I consume news via electronic media.
S&P Futures, Global Stocks, Euro Dragged Lower By Deutsche, Geopolitics, French Election Worries (Zero Hedge)
European shares and S&P futures are modestly lower this morning, dragged down by fresh geopolitical concerns out of North Korea which last night fired 4 ballistic missiles, by renewed political jitters ouf of France where Alain Juppe announced he would not run in the presidential election, from Deutsche Bank whose aggressive equity offering has weighed on local stocks, and from China's announcement over the weekend in which it modestly cut its economic outlook.
Companies
Funds expect Saudi Aramco to be valued around $1-1.5 trillion: survey (Reuters)
Fund managers and institutional investors expect oil giant Saudi Aramco to have a market capitalization of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion when it sells shares to the public next year, a survey by regional investment bank EFG Hermes showed on Monday.
The 100 Most Overpaid CEOs (Ritholtz)
Technology
Consumer Reports to consider cyber security in product reviews (Reuters)
Consumer Reports, an influential U.S. non-profit group that conducts extensive reviews of cars, kitchen appliances and other goods, is gearing up to start considering cyber security and privacy safeguards when scoring products.
The rise of artificial intelligence is creating new variety in the chip market, and trouble for Intel (The Economist)
“WE ALMOST went out of business several times.” Usually founders don’t talk about their company’s near-death experiences. But Jen-Hsun Huang, the boss of Nvidia, has no reason to be coy.
How to make robots pay their fair share (The Economist)
THE future looks increasingly perilous for the human worker. New robots are no longer flummoxed by staircases and doorknobs; clever software is capable of driving cars and carrying on (rudimentary) conversations.
Record shares of Americans now own smartphones, have home broadband (Pew Research Center)
Nearly nine-in-ten Americans today are online, up from about half in the early 2000s. Pew Research Center has chronicled this trend and others through more than 15 years of surveys on internet and technology use.
Politics
U.K. Slams Russian Aggression as EU Steps Up Defense Cooperation (Bloomberg)
British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson warned against the threat Russia poses to Western democracies as the European Union moved to bring its military operations under a single command for the first time.
Outgoing French President Francois Hollande said in European newspaper interviews published on Monday that his "ultimate duty" was to prevent a victory of far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen in this year's election.
Trump’s Military Ambition: Raw Power as a Means and an End (NY Times)
President Trump’s vision of American power, something of a mystery during the campaign, has come into new focus after a week of speeches and budget plans hinting at his ambitions for the military.
What Can Be Gleaned From Trump’s Allegations of Wiretapping (NY Times)
President Trump’s claim on Twitter early Saturday that he had “just found out” that “President Obama was tapping my phones in October,” an accusation for which he offered no evidence, has set off another spasm surrounding his young administration.
President Pence’s problems: Indiana Democrats say VP was “the worst governor we ever had” (Salon)
It’s impossible to predict whether President Donald Trump will be impeached, but as of last month 40 percent of voters wanted an impeachment to happen. This statistic raises an important question: Were Trump to leave office, would Vice President Mike Pence be better or worse than The Donald?
Trump and Mussolini: The same, only different? Eleven key lessons from historical fascism (Salon)
I’d like to draw some comparisons and contrasts between our present situation and that of fascist Italy between 1922 and 1945. I choose fascist Italy rather than Nazi Germany because it has always seemed to me a better comparison.
America’s Bad Border Tax (Project Syndicate)
The United States may be about to implement a border adjustment tax. The Republican Party, now in control of the legislative and executive branches, views a BAT – which would effectively subsidize US exporters, by giving them tax breaks, while penalizing US companies that import goods – as an important element of corporate-tax reform.
Why do most Americans seem sure that the president is keeping his promises (The Economist)
DONALD TRUMP’S presidency contains a puzzle. Opinions of the new president are remarkably clear-cut. Nine in ten of those who voted for him last November say they approve of his performance.
Clapper Denies Trump Wiretapped as White House Demands Probe (Bloomberg)
Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said there was no wiretap activity directed against President Donald Trump or his campaign by the Obama administration, as Trump has claimed without evidence in calling for a Congressional investigation.
France's Death Spiral (Gatestone)
In 1990, the "Gayssot law" was passed, stipulating that "any discrimination based on ethnicity, nation, race or religion is prohibited". Since then, it has been used to criminalize any criticism of Arab and African delinquency, any question on immigration from the Muslim world, any negative analysis of Islam.
Thousands of ICE detainees claim they were forced into labor, a violation of anti-slavery laws (The Washington Post)
Tens of thousands of immigrants detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement were forced to work for $1 day, or for nothing at all — a violation of federal anti-slavery laws — a lawsuit claims.
In Washington, whenever the idea of Kurdish independence from Iraq comes up, all kinds of experts, former diplomats and officials declare, “Never going to happen.” Without fail, the assertion is always backed up with an elegant and well-informed statement of the serious challenges facing Iraqi Kurds, leading to the conclusion that a declaration of independence is “not rational.”
When One President Smears Another (NY Times)
Let’s begin with what the public can know for certain. President Trump had no evidence on Saturday morning when he smeared his predecessor, President Barack Obama, accusing him of ordering that Trump Tower phones be tapped during the 2016 campaign. Otherwise, the White House would not be scrambling to find out if what he said is true.
Israeli Cabinet Makes Move to Decriminalize Recreational Marijuana Use (NY Times)
Israel, which has been at the forefront of research into medical marijuana and the drug’s commercialization, took a major step on Sunday toward officially decriminalizing its recreational use.
‘Saturday Night Live’ searches for Republican hero with mock movie trailer (The Hill)
“Saturday Night Live” used a mock action movie trailer during its latest show to ask which Republican will step forward and speak out against President Trump.
Large Majorities See Checks and Balances, Right to Protest as Essential for Democracy (Pew Research Center)
Large majorities of the public, Republicans and Democrats alike, say open and fair elections and a system of governmental checks and balances are essential to maintaining a strong democracy in the United States.
Here’s the key to Trump’s outrageous lies: He sells them with conviction (Salon)
Donald Trump lies, a lot. He lies so much it’s usually safer to assume any random statement he makes is false until proven otherwise. The Washington Post has been tracking the president’s falsehoods, and as of this week, he has told an average of 4.5 lies a day in the six weeks he’s been in office.
Life on the Home Planet
Everybody Think They're Middle Class (Bloomberg)
“We’re middle-class. We’re not poor. We can’t afford the kids, but we’re not poor. You don’t have any credit being young. I can’t afford school. Can’t afford the education to get the job to get a place. I could be making the cure for cancer, but no. You all don’t want to put me in college, so I can’t afford it.”
The lessons of violence and inequality through the ages (The Economist)
AS A supplier of momentary relief, the Great Depression seems an unlikely candidate. But when it turns up on page 363 of Walter Scheidel’s “The Great Leveler” it feels oddly welcome.
