Financial Markets and Economy
How Slipping Oil Prices Are Hurting the Global Reflation Rally (Bloomberg)
In the latest blow, Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday that it raised output back above 10 million barrels a day in February — reversing about a third of the cuts made the previous month — sending crude to the lowest level since late November. That pushed stocks and commodity-linked currencies, such as the ruble and the Norwegian krone, lower, while fueling demand for the relative safety of Treasuries.
U.S. Producer Prices Climbed More Than Forecast in February (Bloomberg)
U.S. producer prices rose more than forecast in February, while costs increased from a year earlier by the most since March 2012, signaling inflation is picking up, a Labor Department report showed Tuesday in Washington.
Natural gas plunges as the worst of the blizzard misses NYC (Business Insider)
Natural gas is down 2.5% at $2.966 per British thermal unit after winter storm Stella turned out not to be as bad as initially feared. The storm was expected to dump up to two feet of snow on New York City, but has shifted inward, meaning the snow totals are less and customers may not use as much as natural gas as initially expected.
Wall Street Has Found Its Next Big Short in U.S. Credit Market (Bloomberg)
It’s no secret many mall complexes have been struggling for years as Americans do more of their shopping online. But now, they’re catching the eye of hedge-fund types who think some may soon buckle under their debts, much the way many homeowners did nearly a decade ago.
The dollar drifts as the Fed gears up for a rate hike (Business Insider)
The dollar is hovering as the Federal Reserve gets ready for its two-day meeting.
The US dollar index is up by 0.2% at 101.58 as of 7:26 a.m. ET.
Price and Value Are Increasingly Distorted in Markets (Bloomberg)
In his 1986 paper “Noise,” Fisher Black — the Goldman Sachs economist who developed the Black-Scholes option pricing model with Myron Scholes — discussed two kinds of volatility: price and value.
Private Equity Returns Still Outperform Public Markets (Forbes)
Private equity buyout funds globally delivered returns that beat public equity markets by a sizable margin in 2016. In the U.S., funds delivered a 6% end-to-end pooled internal rate of return (IRR) for the 12 months ending June 2016, compared with 4% for the S&P 500 using an apples-to-apples metric developed by investment advisory firm Cambridge Associates.
Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About the Trump Rally (Bloomberg)
The last time Robert Shiller heard stock-market investors talk like this in 2000, it didn’t end well for the bulls.
Back then, the Nobel Prize-winning economist says, traders were captivated by a “new era story” of technological transformation: The Internet had re-defined American business and made traditional gauges of equity-market value obsolete.
Chinese Now The Largest Group Of Foreign Investors In U.S. Commercial Real Estate (Forbes)
Chinese investors were the single largest group of foreign investors in commercial real estate in the U.S. last year, with deal volumes reaching a record high of $19.2 billion, up 10% from $17.3 billion in 2015, according to a new report from Cushman &
Student-Loan Defaults Rose by 1.1 Million in 2016 (The Wall Street Journal)
More than 3,000 people a day defaulted on their federal student loans in 2016, new government data show, underscoring persistent problems in the way the government and families finance higher education in the U.S.
Marijuana Industry Projected To Create More Jobs Than Manufacturing By 2020 (Forbes)
Jobs. That is what the marijuana industry hopes will keep the Trump administration from cracking down on cannabis companies.
Another sharp drop for oil prices pulls stocks down (Los Angeles Times)
Stock indexes sank Tuesday after yet another drop in the price of oil dragged down shares across the energy industry. Other areas of the market had modest losses as investors wait to hear from the Federal Reserve, which began a two-day policy meeting on interest rates.
World prepares to move on without U.S. on trade (The Agenda)
Here’s what happens when the U.S. pulls out of a major trade deal: New Zealand seizes the opportunity to send more of its milk and cheese to China. Japanese consumers pay less for Australian beef than for American meat. Canadians talk about sending everything from farm products to banking services to Japan and India.
What the unemployment rate does – and doesn’t – say about the economy (Pew Research Center)
Every month, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a flood of data about employment and unemployment in the U.S. And every month, the lion’s share of the attention goes to one figure – the unemployment rate, which was a seasonally adjusted 4.8% in January.
This titanic stock market has that sinking feeling (Market Watch)
The U.S. stock market keeps trending higher at a relatively brisk pace, but there are signs of trouble. Yet most investors seem blissfully unaware.
I graduated from Harvard without debt — here are my 7 best tips to score a full ride college scholarship (Business Insider)
The cost of attending a private university, like Harvard, has increased by 13% in the past five years.
Because I had a lot of demonstrated need, sought outside scholarships, and worked during college, I was able to graduate from Harvard completely debt-free.
US Economic Confidence Index Corrects After Uptick (Gallup)
Americans' confidence in the economy returned to its recent levels last week after a record-setting post-recession high the week before. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index was +9 for the week ending March 12.
Shhh! 5 Real Estate Tax Secrets the Rich Don't Want You to Know (Realtor.com)
Do you ever feel like the rich just keep getting richer? Well, allow us to let you in on a little secret: Part of the reason they keep on raking in dough is that they take advantage of real estate tax strategies that many ordinary homeowners have no clue even exist.
How to position your portfolio for rate hikes (USA Today)
Is your investment portfolio built to thrive when interest rates rise?
Now is a good time to find out. After years of low borrowing costs, rates appear to be headed higher as the U.S. economy improves, inflation ticks higher and jobs become easier to find.
US Producer Prices Spike At Fastest Rate In 5 Years (Zero Hedge)
With tomorrow's rate hike baked in the cake, today's hotter than expected PPI print for February provides Yellen more cover (as economic growth forecasts slump). PPI Final Demand surged 2.2% YoY (more than expected) driven by a 4.0% YoY jump in final demand goods. This is the highest inflationary print since March 2012.
No, the Bull Market is Not 8 Years Old (Ritholtz)
To committed readers of the financial press, it was almost impossible to miss the proclamations that a milestone had been passed: The bull market, as of yesterday, was eight years old. For a sampling of examples see this, this, this, this, this or this.
Oil Plunge Accelerates After EIA Forecasts Spike In April Shale Output (Zero Hedge)
It is going from bad to worse for oil bulls (such as Pierre Andurand), who after giving up hopes to see the first rebound in oil prices in 7 days, are now watching oil tumble to the lowest price since the Vienna oil meeting, down to $47.28.
Companies
Ackman Sells Valeant Stake After at Least $2.8 Billion Loss (Bloomberg)
Bill Ackman has finally conceded defeat on Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc.
After waging a costly and outspoken public defense of the controversial drugmaker, its once-biggest champion sold his entire stake in the company at a loss and said he will leave the board.
Neiman Marcus says it is exploring options, including a sale (Reuters)
Luxury fashion retailer Neiman Marcus Group Ltd LLC said on Tuesday that it was exploring strategic alternatives, including changes to its capital structure or a sale of the company, as it seeks relief from its swelling debt pile.
Valeant's collapse — from Clinton's tweet to Ackman's exit (Business Insider)
Bill Ackman has officially quit Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
The founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square on Monday sold his investment in the company and announced his plan to step down from the board. Valeant's shares were down as much as 12% Tuesday morning.
Intel Corp. and Qualcomm, Inc.: On a Collision Course (The Motley Fool)
For years, there has been very little intersection between Intel's (NASDAQ:INTC) core businesses and Qualcomm's (NASDAQ:QCOM). Intel's revenue today comes primarily from sales of personal-computer processors, processors for enterprise and cloud servers, and networking applications.
Kushners Set to Get $400 Million From Chinese Firm on Tower (Bloomberg)
A company owned by the family of Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, stands to receive more than $400 million from a prominent Chinese company that is investing in the Kushners’ marquee Manhattan office tower at 666 Fifth Ave.
Technology
Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft are helping Google fight an order to hand over foreign emails (Business Insider)
Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Cisco have filed an amicus brief in support of Google, after a Pennsylvania court ruled that the company had to hand over emails stored overseas in response to an FBI warrant.
Google’s Cloud CAPEX Hits $30bn With More To Come As Giant Plans 10 New Data Centres (Data Economy)
Google’s cloud empire has cost the American giant $30bn over the years, nearly double of what Microsoft has invested in its Azure cloud infrastructure.
Robots are going to take our jobs and make us look like fools while doing it (Bloomberg)
The other day I was talking to Demis Hassabis, co-founder and CEO of DeepMind, the artificial-intelligence research company based here in London that is part of Google parent Alphabet.
Qatar Airways' New Business Class Design Converts Into A Double Bed Or An Office (Forbes)
At the ITB tourism show in Berlin, Germany last week, Qatar Airways unveiled a new business class seat design that can reconfigure to create a joint double bed or an open work and meeting space. The announcement was made live at the show via Facebook Live and coordinated with a prepared release.
Electric Car Comparison: Volvo’s New EV, Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt, BMW i3 (International Business Times)
Volvo, which already produces a number of hybrid vehicles, is finally entering the fully electric car market. Though the release of the yet-to-be-named car is slated for 2019, the Volvo EV looks like it could be a winner, given its specifications and competitive pricing.
Sony prices XBR-A1E OLED TV higher than LG, starting at $5,000 (CNet)
The storied Japanese TV maker will start shipping its first large-screen, mass-market OLED-based TVs this April in the US, and they're available for preorder now. The A1E series will come in a 55-inch size for $5,000 and a 65-inch size for $6,500.
New iPads to arrive next month during first Apple Park event (Cult Of Mac)
Sources say that production of the new 10.5-inch iPad Pro has been brought forward for the launch. The device is expected to be accompanied by an updated 12.9-inch iPad Pro and a more affordable 9.7-inch iPad.
Scientists discover how to 'upload knowledge to your brain' (The Telegraph)
Feeding knowledge directly into your brain, just like in sci-fi classic The Matrix, could soon take as much effort as falling asleep, scientists believe.
Politics
White House Weighs Health Bill Changes as Ryan Sticks With Plan (Bloomberg)
House Speaker Paul Ryan doesn’t plan to make major changes to Republicans’ plan to replace Obamacare, according to a GOP aide, but the White House says it’s talking with members of Congress who want to amend the legislation.
America's small investment in government data has big payoffs (The Hill)
With discretionary budget cuts in the works, the ability of government statistical agencies to perform their duties may be in jeopardy. At a relatively small cost — only about one-fifth of 1 percent of the federal budget — the government statistical agencies do important work that is valuable to business, policymakers, and families.
More Americans say government should ensure health care coverage (Pew Research Center)
As the debate continues over repeal of the Affordable Care Act and what might replace it, a growing share of Americans believe that the federal government has a responsibility to make sure all Americans have health care coverage, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
Trump’s Counties Lose Out to Clinton’s in GOP Health Tax Cut (Bloomberg)
The very first individual tax cuts officially endorsed by President Donald Trump don’t offer great news for most of his supporters: Counties that backed him would get less than a third of the relief that would go to counties where Democrat Hillary Clinton won.
Empty talk, self-censorship, brain-dead conformity — that's outspoken delegate Cui Yongyuan's assessment of China's national parliament, celebrated by the Communist Party as empowering the people but which he calls a big waste of time.
Here are the biggest winners and losers from 'Trumpcare' (Business Insider)
Not everyone would gain the same benefits under the American Health Care Act, the bill House Republicans have introduced to replace the Affordable Care Act, the healthcare law better known as Obamacare.
U.S. Citizens Now Being Forced To Provide Their Social Media Passwords Upon Return To U.S. (Daily Kos)
The word for it, in case you were searching, is “despicable.”
“Un-American” would also work. But you might save time by just labeling it: Trump.
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The GOP health plan is an act of class warfare by the rich against the poor (Vox)
The Congressional Budget Office’s assessment of Republicans’ plan to replace Obamacare is a description of one of the largest, most significant income redistribution programs the US government has ever considered — from the poor to the wealthy rather than the other way around.
Trump signals his willingness to put even deeper cuts into Trumpcare (Think Progress)
Democrats oppose the bill en masse. Members of the Tea Party Caucus are deriding it as “Obamacare Lite.” And the more centrist wing of the Republican Party feels queasy at the prospect of voting for a bill that, according to Congressional Budget Office projections, would cause 24 million people to go without insurance over the next decade.
KRUGMAN: 'Trumpcare' is 'stupid and cruel' (Business Insider)
Paul Krugman on Tuesday raged against the American Health Care Act, the GOP's proposed healthcare bill, arguing it would potentially be devastating for those who voted for President Donald Trump.
Proposed Law Could Be a New Attack on Civil Rights (NY Times)
A chilling little bill is working its way through Congress. It could have the effect of ending the class action as an American institution. The legislation, the Fairness in Class Action Litigation Act, passed the House last week.
Trump Force One Is Ready for Takeoff (Bloomberg)
Donald Trump has long had a thing about Air Force One. He denigrated the presidential jet on the campaign trail, calling it “a step down … in every way” from his own plane, a gilded Boeing 757. He mocked Air Force One’s fuel-guzzling engines and blasted President Obama for taking it to campaign rallies and on vacation.
On an almost daily basis there are new revelations about the questionable and perhaps illegal connections between President Donald Trump’s administration (and before that his campaign) and the Russian espionage apparatus under the control of Vladimir Putin.
Trading Health Care for the Poor for Tax Cuts for the Rich (NY Times)
So much for President Trump’s pledge of “insurance for everybody.” The Congressional Budget Office said on Monday that next year 14 million fewer Americans will have insurance if the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, is repealed and replaced on the terms the president is seeking.
Trump’s media-bashing is making it easier for foreign regimes to gag the press (The Washington Post)
I received a text message from my wife saying she’d been detained by police in China.
We’re both American correspondents in Beijing, and we’ve become accustomed to this sort of harassment.
“A stark, raving racist”: Democrats turn up the heat on Republicans who refuse to condemn Rep. Steve King’s white nationalismOne of the most controversial elected Republicans in the U.S. has ramped up his white nationalist rhetoric and instead of scrambling to distance themselves from his apparent belief that national identity is linked to the white race and its superiority to other races, many prominent Republican officials have remained mum on the matter — leaving Democrats an opening to pummel the GOP as the party of white nationalists.
Some GOP lawmakers back away from Trumpcare after learning millions will lose insurance (Think Progress)
On Monday, the Congressional Budget Office released its analysis of House Republicans’ plan to replace the Affordable Care Act with a series of smaller tax incentives for consumers and a massive tax cut for health insurance companies with overpaid CEOs.
Turkey's President Erdogan Attacks the Netherlands: 'We Know How Rotten Their Character Is' (Associated Press)
In a new verbal attack against the Dutch amid their growing diplomatic spat, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held the Netherlands responsible for Europe's worst mass killing since World War II.
Life on the Home Planet
The Northeast Blizzard Has Grounded Over 5,800 Flights and Postponed the Trump-Merkel Summit (Reuters)
Snow blanketed parts of the northeast United States on Tuesday as a blizzard rolled in, with residents being advised to stay at home, airlines grounding flights and schools canceling classes.
