Financial Markets and Economy
German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop (Reuters)
When port manager Axel Mattern looks out onto the Elbe River from his office in Hamburg's historic warehouse district, he can literally count the rising number of container ships leaving Germany's biggest harbor.
Trump’s Trade Warrior Is the Most Unpopular Economist in the Class (Bloomberg)
As he stepped onto the stage at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics, Peter Navarro knew he was facing a tough crowd—or what passes for one in the staid world of the social sciences.
Hedge funds lose faith in OPEC: Kemp (Reuters)
Hedge funds are losing faith that OPEC can accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market even if the group agrees to extend output cuts when it meets later this month.
Investors in DryShips Are Not Completely Crazy (The Wall Street Journal)
Why invest in a stock that rose 1,500% and then fell 99% while the chief executive earned millions?
Every major carmaker whiffs on sales (Business Insider)
All the major automakers reported weaker-than-expected April sales on Tuesday, signaling that the market may have peaked after seven straight years of record-setting numbers.
Auto Sales Fall for Fourth Straight Month (Bloomberg)
The slump in the U.S. auto industry is showing no signs of letting up.
Trump Administration’s Push for Gas Exports Faces Market Glut (NY Times)
The Trump administration is moving to make the United States the world’s leading exporter of natural gas as a central component of both energy and trade policy.
Pledging more austerity, Greece cuts deal with lenders (Reuters)
Promising to cut pensions and give taxpayers fewer breaks, Greece has paved the way for the disbursement of further rescue funds from international lenders and possibly opened the door to reworking its massive debt.
U.K. Manufacturing Growth Surges to Fastest in Three Years (Bloomberg)
U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly grew at the fastest pace in three years in April as the domestic market strengthened and the pound’s depreciation boosted exports.
America's Top Public Companies In 2017: A Buffett Buy List (Forbes)
President Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders finally found a consensus yesterday, although an unlikely one for a businessman and a Socialist: breaking up those big banks.
Big Coal’s last-ditch effort won’t save the industry (Think Progress)
Few industries have enjoyed the kind of presidential attention that has been lavished on the coal industry in the first 100 days of the Trump administration.
US Economic Confidence Falls in April, but Still Positive (Gallup)
Americans' economic confidence weakened slightly in April, but they remain positive about the current state of the U.S. economy. Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged +5 in April, down four points from March's average.
Extension of OPEC/non-OPEC crude oil production cut deal near certain: analysts (S&P Global Platts)
The likelihood of OPEC and major non-OPEC producers agreeing to extend their ongoing crude oil output cut is near certain, two prominent analysts said Monday.
Don’t Spend Your Tax Cut Yet (Mauldin Economics)
On November 16, 2016, just a week after he won the election, Donald Trump went out for steak. Not just any steak, either. The president-elect took his family to New York’s exclusive 21 Club, ditching the press pool to enjoy some privacy.
China's Environmental Crisis (CFR Backgrounders)
China’s environmental crisis is one of the most pressing challenges to emerge from the country’s rapid industrialization. Its economic rise, in which GDP grew on average 10 percent each year for more than a decade, has come at the expense of its environment and public health.
May Day Quandary – Are US Goods Producing Jobs Ever Coming Back? (Economica)
The proportions that make up America's Service, Goods Producing, and Governmental employment have fundamentally changed since WWII. The chart below outlines that nearly all US job growth since 1939 has come from the service sector, with an assist from government jobs.
A Chinese Factory Slave Explains Why Manufacturing Jobs Are Never Coming Back to America (Blacklisted News)
While we all loved President Trump’s campaign pledge to bring jobs back to America, there are powerful economic forces at work that suggest the shift to cheap labor is pretty much irreversible.
Charlie Munger On The Benefits Of Long Term Investing (Value Walk)
The above quote comes from an opinion piece written by Charlie Munger at the end of January 1984, although it could quite easily be a reference to today’s markets.
The Best And Worst Performing Assets In April And YTD (Zero Hedge)
In his latest review of monthly asset performance, DB's Jim Reid writes that the month of April was for the most part a positive one for the bank's sample of assets. For riskier assets in particular, April was however a bit of a tale of two halves.
Companies
Valeant Ponders a Name Change to Try and Escape Past Reputation (Bloomberg)
Chief Executive Officer Joe Papa said that Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. is considering a name change after a two-year stretch that has seen the company lose more than 95 percent of its value amid harsh criticism of its business practices and future prospects.
Bitcoin soars above $1,400 to all-time high (Reuters)
Bitcoin surged to an all-time high above $1,400 on Tuesday, after more than tripling in value over the past year, with its most recent rise attributed to strong demand in Japan, where the digital currency has been deemed a legal means of payment.
AMD is tanking after forecasting disappointing gross margins (Business Insider)
Chip maker Advanced Micro Devices is tanking, down 18.2%, or $2.48, at $11.14 a share, after giving a disappointing gross margin forecast. The company expects second quarter gross margins to come in at about 33%, down slightly from the first quarter reading of 34%.
Pfizer's Lackluster Sales May Fuel Speculation for Deals (Bloomberg)
Pfizer Inc.’s underwhelming sales for its blockbuster medicines in the first quarter will probably further fuel speculation that the giant drugmaker needs to make a deal to revive growth.
Perrigo Says Investigators Searched Its Offices in Generic-Drug Probe (The Wall Street Journal)
Perrigo Co. said Tuesday its offices were searched by investigators conducting a federal probe of price collusion in the generic-drug industry.
IAC to Buy Angie’s List in Deal Valued at Over $500 Million (Bloomberg)
IAC/InteractiveCorp agreed to buy consumer-recommendation website Angie’s List Inc., intending to combine the business with its own HomeAdvisor online-review network and create a new publicly traded company.
Ford Truck Sales Roughly Unchanged Y/Y (Bespoke)
While we will be updating overall US auto sales on the blog throughout the day, we wanted to provide a quick update on truck sales from Ford. Trucks are not only higher margin, but they are often purchased by small businesses and contractors so they provide a good read on the health of the small business sector.
Technology
Microsoft is building an augmented reality viewer directly into Windows 10 (The Verge)
Microsoft is planning to bring a View Mixed Reality feature to Windows 10 later this year. It's designed to let Windows 10 users augment 3D objects, created in 3D Paint, into the real world by using any laptop with a webcam.
There are the best features in the all-electric Chevy Bolt (Business Insider)
There's a lot to love about the Chevy Bolt, GM's first long range, affordable all-electric car.
These 14 giant corporations dominate the global auto industry (Business Insider)
The automotive industry has experienced some incredible growth over the past couple of years. In the US alone, more than 30 automotive brands vie for the 17 million autos that are sold each year.
Politics
Republicans are scrambling to win votes in what looks like a razor-thin vote on 'Trumpcare' (Business Insider)
According to aggregate "whip counts" conducted by various outlets, somewhere between 20 and 22 Republican members of the House have said they will vote "no" on the American Health Care Act, which would repeal and replace Obamacare.
Bush Already Tried Trump’s Proposed Corporate Tax Holiday and It Was a Total Failure (The Intercept)
AS PART OF ITS radical but still mostly undefined tax plan, the Trump administration proposed a tax holiday for corporate earnings stored overseas. Reporters have been hearing on background that the tax rate would be slashed from 35 percent to 10 percent.
TRUMP: 'Our country needs a good "shutdown" in September' (Business Insider)
President Donald Trump on Tuesday suggested the US federal government could use a shutdown in September to fix what he called a "mess" in Congress.
Dismantling Michelle Obama’s legacy: Donald Trump targets the former first lady’s initiatives aimed at childrenPresident Donald Trump has proudly boasted of his use of a little-known law that allows him to systematically dismantle many aspects of his predecessor’s legacy, but his administration has been more muted about its efforts to roll back the historic work of Michelle Obama.
Now we know Donald Trump’s plan to sell tax cuts for the rich (Vox)
Last week, Donald Trump proposed an enormous deficit-increasing tax cut slanted toward the interests of high-income families. That’s a tough sell at a time when public opinion has tilted sharply against cutting taxes on the rich, and when a low unemployment rate and Federal Reserve interest rate increases have eliminated the case for fiscal stimulus.
Restaurant Calorie Counts Delayed by Trump Administration (Bloomberg)
A U.S. rule that would have made restaurant chains display calorie counts on their menus has been delayed by the Trump administration, postponing a public-health initiative that had already been pushed back under President Obama.
“There was no point”: Trump’s White House is puzzled about his bizarre series of interviews (Salon)
Monday was filled with commentary by President Donald Trump that, even by the standards established during his administration, managed to turn the political world on its head — from claiming that the Civil War may not have happened had Andrew Jackson been around to saying he’d be open to a gas tax and breaking up the big banks.
CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.1% Year-over-year in March (Calculated Risk)
This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
How Norway Shows the Limits of “Civilized Capitalism” and Social Organization (Naked Capitalism)
This article takes the questionable point of view that the problems of loyalties at different levels of society can be magically solved by more teamwork, and by focusing on teamwork at the highest level, meaning globally.
Rupert Murdoch’s Trump gamble pays off: FCC says Fox can buy more local TV stations (Salon)
During the early stages of last year’s Republican presidential race, most right-leaning elites opposed Donald Trump’s bid. As an immigrant and a billionaire, 21st Century Fox founder Rupert Murdoch was definitely among them, critiquing Trump multiple times on Twitter, including one remark in July of 2015 asking when the eventual GOP nominee would “stop embarrassing his friends, let alone the whole country?” Reportedly, Murdoch even directed his Fox News employees to go hard after Trump in the first Republican presidential debate.
Donald Trump Embraces Another Despot (NY Times)
The United States has long seen itself as a beacon of democracy and a global advocate of human rights and the rule of law. It has faltered, sometimes badly, undermining leaders whose views did not fit its strategic objectives and replacing them with pliant despots.
Q1 2017 US Homeownership Rate Declines To 63.6% (Back To Clinton, Pre-Bubble Levels) (Confounded Interest)
According to the US Census Bureau, the US homeownership rate is back to pre-bubble levels.
Senate Quietly Drops Russian Sanctions Bill, Focuses On Iran Crackdown (Blacklisted News)
Instead, Committee Chairman Bob Corker of Tennessee and ranking Democrat Ben Cardin of Maryland have agreed to move forward on a measure to counter Russian influence in Eastern Europe without using sanctions as well as an Iran sanctions bill.
30/4/17: The Scariest Chart in the World (True Economics)
The scariest chart in the world this week, indeed this month, comes from the U.S. and plots U.S. real GDP growth with 1Q 2017 print at just 0.7% y/y.
Why people are rich and poor: Republicans and Democrats have very different views (Pew Research Center)
Beyond partisan differences over economic policies, there are stark divisions on a fundamental question: What makes someone rich or poor? Most Republicans link a person’s financial standing to their own hard work – or the lack of it. Most Democrats say that whether someone is rich or poor is more attributable to circumstances beyond their control.
Life on the Home Planet
12-year-old girl forced to quit chess tournament after her dress was deemed “seductive” (Alternet)
At a National Scholastic Chess Championship in Putrajaya, Malaysia, a 12-year-old girl was reportedly forced to quit the competition after a tournament director reportedly found her dress “seductive.”
The Coming Storm of Climate Change (Bloomberg)
Hurricanes, droughts, and other extreme weather raise the question: Was that related to global warming? This short video looks at what scientists call climate attribution studies, which gauge how big an influence humanity may have had on weather.
N. Korean State Media: ‘US Drills Push Koreas Closer to Brink of Nuclear War’ (InfoWars)
The US activities in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula – namely, US strategic bomber joint flights with South Korean and Japanese forces – may see the two Koreas end up in a nuclear war, the North Korean state agency KCNA has said.
San Diego and Kentucky attacks show the hypocrisy of how the media covers white assailants (Mic)
On Sunday, a 49-year-old gunman stormed into a pool party at an apartment complex in San Diego, California. Peter Selis killed one black woman and injured six others: three black women, two black men and one Hispanic man.
The Inside Story of How Fyre Festival Went Up in Flames (Bloomberg)
Soon after William N. Finley IV got off the bus to the festival grounds late Thursday afternoon, he realized something was very wrong. He’d flown into the Bahamas for the Fyre Festival, a luxury getaway ostensibly filled with celebrities, yachts, and villas on a pristine beach in an island paradise.
Jimmy Kimmel delivers raw, personal monologue about health care access (Think Progress)
In a raw, impassioned monologue on Jimmy Kimmel Live last night, Kimmel described for his audience the harrowing nightmare he’d spent the past week living.
Tomahawk Missile Strike On Syria Was 'After-Dinner Entertainment' – US Commerce Secretary (Blacklisted News)
The 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles the US launched against Syria last month was just “after-dinner entertainment,” which “did not cost the president anything,” the US commerce secretary said, while President Trump called the attack a “tough decision.”
Troops everywhere: Inside America’s expanding war-fighting footprint in Africa (TomDispatch)
General Thomas Waldhauser sounded a little uneasy. “I would just say, they are on the ground. They are trying to influence the action,” commented the chief of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) at a Pentagon press briefing in March, when asked about Russian military personnel operating in North Africa. “We watch what they do with great concern.”
Over Half of Babies Born in Guangzhou in Past 6 Months Are Second Children (Woman Of China)
The number of second children born in Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province surpassed the number of first children during the past six months, which experts said shows that the second-child policy was not "unpopular and ineffective" as some reports had presumed.
Climate Skeptics Always Assume the Risks Are Overhyped (Bloomberg)
Bret Stephens of the New York Times made a splash the other day with a column questioning the scientific consensus on climate change. Stephens didn’t cite any skeptical research papers or alternative theories — his doubt was based purely on distrust of those who make confident predictions..
