ABX/Rookie - Well we already have plenty but, as a new trade idea:
- Sell 10 ABX 2019 $15 puts for $2.20 ($2,200)
- Buy 20 ABX 2019 $13 calls for $4.80 ($9,600)
- Sell 20 ABX 2019 $20 calls for $2 ($4,000)
That's net $3,400 on the $14,000 spread with $10,600 (312%) upside potential at $20 and worst case is owning 10 at net $18.40, which is a bit high but the idea is that, if gold totally tanks, you only have 10 so you can do a 2x roll to maybe the 2020 $10s (the 2018 $20 puts are $4 in the money at $4.50 and the 2019 $15 puts are $2.20 so 2x roll drops you $5).
SLW/Pstas - They don't own mines, they stream silver contracts so, kind of like an MBS REIT, they have about 3 years worth of silver contracts (usually at discounts) to buy and then they sell at spot. So, the theory is that all their contracts are now $20 or less and we don't see silver going much lower and anything higher is a huge bonus. Keep in mind, they only lost money in 2015 - even on that huge drop.
| Year End 31st Dec | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017E | 2018E | CAGR / Avg | |
| $m | 730 | 849.6 | 706.5 | 620.2 | 648.7 | 891.6 | 886.6 | 937.4 | +4.1% | |
| $m | 561.1 | 600 | 387.7 | 202.9 | -157.3 | 223 | -16.9% | |||
| $m | 550 | 586 | 375.5 | 199.8 | -162 | 195.1 | 287.3 | 331.4 | -18.7% | |
| $ | 1.55 | 1.65 | 1.05 | 0.56 | -0.41 | 0.45 | -21.8% | |||
| $ | 1.55 | 1.65 | 1.05 | 0.68 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.75 | -18.4% | |
| % | +249.1 | +6.5 | -36.0 | -35.6 | -67.2 | +151.4 | +17.9 | +13.2 | ||
| x | 34.9 | 29.6 | 26.2 | |||||||
| x | 1.95 | 2.25 | 3.56 | |||||||
SLW/Dsheara – Yes, I still like them and ABX.
