A Lesson In Humility

If you asked me what I thought about bitcoin a year ago, I would have said it’s ridiculous. Today I have no opinion. My knowledge of cryptocurrencies is unchanged over the last year, but bitcoin is up 240%.

Then: A digital currency? What does that even mean? Can’t it get hacked? And what sort of so-called currency has the variance of a 4x ETF?

Now: Why should we have faith in paper currencies? Can’t the fed print money at will and dilute the value of my hard-earned dollar? And why should I trust the banks with all my money? And isn’t digital the future of everything?

Bitcoin is up 140% year-to-date and 17,000% since 2013. This has captured the attention and imaginations of investors, speculators, and know-nothing civilians.

There’s a little child inside all of our brains that can’t stand to watch other people riding a money train that we’re not on.

The thing about bubbles, and for the record, I’m not brave or dumb enough to declare this one, is that they wear you down. They make you feel irresponsible for not getting involved. Today I found myself at this juncture. What if Bitcoin legitimately is the future of currency? What if this is how 30% of online transactions take place in ten years? Why wouldn’t I buy on this pullback? These are actual thoughts I had earlier today. And then I snapped out of it and started writing this blog post. We’re at the place where mocking and doubt has melted away and only FOMO is left. I no longer feel strongly that Bitcoin will cease to exist in three years, but I’m also not sure if it’s just a twenty-first century bubble either.

I don’t know where Bitcoin is going, but I’m confident that once it gets there, it will have appeared crystal clear in hindsight.