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Sunday, January 12, 2025

Top Trades for Fri, 03 Aug 2018 11:22 – CHL and MO

CHL/Coulter - Another one we just added to the hedge fund (also uncovered).  My notes to Doug were: They may get less per subscriber but China is smaller than the US so they are covering less area but they have 887M subscribers.  They have rich people who are as rich as our rich people and those people are willing to pay whatever for high-speed services.  China's Top 10% is 140M people - that's pretty much our top 40% so all as much as the US Middle Class and higher so why does CHL get "just" a $182Bn valuation with $16.5Bn in profits (p/e 11) while T is at $233Bn with $13Bn in profits (p/e 18)?  

In the LTP, we sold 10 Sept $47.50 puts for $3.80 so we'll be rolling them and we have we own 20 Sept $40/47.50 bull call spreads at net $5,700 and $45 would pay back $10,000 - so all good there.  As a new trade on CHL (which is essentially what we'll be moving to this month), I like:

Sell 10 March $45 puts for $2.70 ($2,700)

Buy 15 March $40 calls for $5 ($7,500)

Sell 15 March $45 calls for $1.80 ($2,700)

That's net $2,100 on a $7,500 spread that's practically all in the money to start so return over $45 would be $5,400 (257%) in just 6 months.   Wow, that one has to be a Top Trade Alert, right?  Let's officially add that to the OOP and the LTP but we can do 20 short puts and 30 spreads in the LTP.  We will adjust the old spread (basically close it out) later in the month.

TSLA/Yodi - It's very hard to be patient and everyone was bugging me last time we were near $380 (where I really want to short).  Once we get over $360 I'd be inclined to start a small short and yes, it would suck to miss it.

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