Courtesy of Chris Kimble.
Strong economic cycles often see stocks rise alongside interest rates/treasury yields. A strong economy typically breeds good earnings and higher stock prices.
A strong economy also brings higher interest as the Federal Reserve raises rates to keep inflation at bay (and/or to normalize the rate environment).
However, interest rates can only go so high… before they reach a tipping point.
In the chart below, we look at the past 20 years for the S&P 500 and 5-Year US Treasury Yield. They tend to rise together, but when rates/yields roll over and support is breached, a deep stock market decline ensues. See support at (1) on both.
Tops in stocks and yields have taken place along the falling resistance line (A) on the 5-Year. Careful here!
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