RH/JMD - We have played them on and off over the years and I find them to be a good, solid company. They are still fairly small, with just 83 stores and Whole Foods has 500 so I'd have to say there's a bit of room to grow as that's essentially the customer base (people willing to pay more for quality). I like their attention to the bottom line while growing and $90.50 is only $1.85Bn so, if they are really going to make $200M next year - that's quite a good deal.
| Year End 02nd Feb | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | CAGR / Avg | |
| $m | 1,551 | 1,867 | 2,109 | 2,135 | 2,440 | 2,506 | 2,606 | 2,801 | +10.1% | |
| $m | 54.9 | 165.7 | 185.6 | 53.0 | 92.7 | 256.2 | +36.1% | |||
| $m | 18.2 | 91.0 | 91.1 | 5.40 | 2.18 | 150.6 | 213.6 | 242.8 | +52.6% | |
| $ | 0.45 | 2.20 | 2.16 | 0.13 | 0.31 | 5.68 | +66.0% | |||
| $ | 0.45 | 2.31 | 2.43 | 0.31 | 1.12 | 6.63 | 8.43 | 9.51 | +71.3% | |
| % | +413.9 | +5.0 | -87.2 | +261.1 | +492.2 | +27.1 | +12.8 | |||
| x | 13.9 | 10.9 | 9.69 | |||||||
| x | 0.51 | 0.86 | 0.52 | |||||||
| Profitability | ||||||||||
Last Q they made $3/share but that's XMas so more like $8.50 for the year and that's still great and, more importantly, they have beat each of the last 4 Qs, though estimates are getting higher and it's hard to keep up and, in fact, $8.50 is a guide-down from $10 expected before the last earnings, when the company dropped guidance as they saw the economy slowing this year (which was an accurate, good call).
So, as much as I like them, recognize they WERE at $50 in the summer of 2017 and $25 the year before, though those were turnaround years (the kind we DO like to invest in) - it does indicate this stock could sell off a lot harder than it has so far so I'd go in looking for more at $75 and more at $50, where I'd put my foot down ($25 no longer realistic) so, in the LTP, since $90.50 is still a lot per share, even if I were willing to make it a $100,000 position, that's only 1,000 shares so I only want to risk being assigned 500 in stage one as I can end up stretched closer to $200,000 if we have to DD twice.
