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Friday, November 29, 2024

Top Trades for Mon, 25 Nov 2019 15:08 – LB

LB/Calch - They finally decided to head higher after earnings and I hope the worst is over but HOPE is not a valid investing strategy and neither is needing a 50% pop to get even!  

You have $26,656 worth of stock at $19.04 and you are down about $11,760 so the real question is - given you have decided to stick with LB, what's the best use to make of $26,656 to get $11,760 back?

First of all, you can sell 20 of the 2022 $17.50 puts for $5 so that's $10,000 right there and worst case if assigned is $35,000 less $10,000 is $25,000 so, if you cash in your stock now and sell 20 2022 $17 puts, you get $10,000 of your $11,760 back and are obligated for not one penny more than you are now and you drop your hurdle from $27 to $15 (44% lower).  Would seem very silly not to do that, right?  

Since you now have the potential to own 2,000 shares at net $36,760 ($18.38) there's no point in keeping your 1,500 shares so that's done.   Now, the question is will you be happy to be (almost) even at $15 or are you now greedier than that and willing to put more money to work?  

You put $38,360 (max risk) to work and got nothing for it last year so let's say it would be a shame not to make 20% so let's see how we can go for $10,000 without adding too much risk.  I see the 2022 $15 ($7)/20 ($4.60) bull call spreads are $2.40 per $5 so $4,800 (20) put to work there will pay $5,200 at $20 and 20 will pay goal at $10,400 but I would not over-commit - you can always take 20 now and add the $17.50/$22.50 bull call spread once you regret not taking 40 of the $15/20s in the first place.  

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