These guys are interesting down here:
Vale updates estimates at investor day
- Vale (VALE +3.2%) says it expects iron ore production to recover in the coming years from a sharp drop after the Brumadinho dam burst, rising to 390M-400M metric tons in 2022 from 340M mt in 2020 while anticipating $5B in capital spending in 2020-21.
- In an investor presentation, Vale also guides for 2022 EBITDA of $15.5B-$23.5B and free cash flow of $7B-$14B.
- Vale also says it will suspend disposals of its Brucutu mine into the Laranjeiras dam for as long as two months, reducing the mine's iron ore production by 1.5M mt/month.
- Finally, the company says it will set targets on reducing Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions from its products even after they have been sold, and will target net-zero emissions by 2050.
I think VALE is solid long-term and way undervalued at $62Bn at $12.15 - especially as they have nice, fat options to play with. I guess we'll put them in the STP but, eventually, we'll have enough of these to start making an LTP. Still, for the STP, which is already up 56% but has $150,555 in CASH!!!:
- Sell 20 VALE 2022 $12 puts for $2.20 ($4,400)
- Buy 40 VALE 2022 $10 calls for $3.40 ($13,600)
- Sell 40 VALE 2022 $15 calls for $1.30 ($5,200)
That's net $4,000 on the $20,000 spread that's $8,000 in the money to start with $16,000 (400%) upside potential at $15. Worst case is owning 2,000 shares of VALE at $12 + $2 (from the $4,000) = $14 and let's say it's $8 (disaster) but then we buy 2,000 more shares for $8 and average $11 and sell 40 2024 $10 calls for $2.50 (ish) and our net is then $8.50 and getting called away at $10 would still be a profit - even without selling puts.
