11.8 C
New York
Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Top Trades for Tue, 20 Apr 2021 16:05 – TD

TD/Hicket - Well that's new.  That makes them playable then.  

TD is at $65 and that's $120Bn in market cap and last year they dropped $12Bn to the bottom line so that's 10x BUT not really as that's $10Bn Canadian Dollars while their market cap is in US Dollars - you have to be careful with that stuff.  I think you need about 100,000,000 CAD for one USD or something like that - I was very drunk last time I was in Canada so perhaps I was over-tipping.  Yes, Google tells me you get 0.7913 USD for a CAD so we discount earning 20% and the p/e becomes 12 - still not bad but now we have to remember that our stock is subject to currency fluctuations BUT, since Canada is resource rich and the US is printing money on trees they import from Canada - the currency has a chance to go in our favor and boost our stock as well.

As you can see, TD is in the high end of the range and it pays a $2.52 (3.84%) dividend so I think, for the LTP, we can just promise to own the stock for net $50 by selling the 2023 $55 puts for $3.50 so, if we sell 10 of those for $3,500 it's almost as good as the dividend if the stock stays above $55 and, if not, we know we'll be happy to add a bull call spread and roll the short puts lower

Net $51,500 is 1/2 of an LTP allocation block so let's say they drop 20%+ to $50 - we won't mind owning them and we could then spend maybe $10,000 on 20 bull call spreads like the $40($26)/60 ($8.50) bull call spread though never for that net ($17.50) but the $60 ($8.50)/80 ($1.50) bull call spread is $7 so hopefully we can pull off the spread for $10 IF the stock drops 20%. 

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