This is the most actionable item from the news this morning:
Moderna, Pfizer forecast for a combined $93.2B in COVID vaccine sales in 2022 – FT
- Pfizer (PFE) is projected to have $54.5B in COVID vaccine revenue, while the figure for Moderna (MRNA) is $38.7B.
- Airfinity says its estimates are supported by middle- and high-income countries buying booster shots.
- The firm said that other manufacturers, including AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), and Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) will bring in $124B next year.
PFE's TOTAL SALES in 2019 were $41Bn and $42Bn last year so shots were not a big revenue item last year as shots didn't start until right at the end of last year. Projected sales for 2021 were $80Bn and that seems right but, at $54.5Bn, 2022 estimates of $71.4Bn are way too low and that means earnings projections of $21Bn are way too low. PFE is only trading at $232Bn at $41.50 so that's - you guessed it - way too low!
Even better for MRNA as last year's sales were $800M, this year $20M and next year projected at $20Bn, both with about $12Bn in profits but WAY TOO LOW by about 50%.
Of course, the thing about MRNA is that, after Covid, they go back to $1Bn in sales so paying $130Bn for them at $335 is a little iffy (we did just sell 5 2024 $200 puts for $25 in the LTP - still good for a new trade - so we'll leave them alone.
PFE, however, was cashed out of the LTP but it does seem like they have another great year ahead of them, even without more variants and, of course, they have $40Bn in regular sales to fall back on. So, while they are low in the channel, let's get back into PFE in the LTP with the following:
- Sell 15 2024 $35 puts for $4 ($6,000)
- Buy 25 2024 $35 calls for $8.50 ($21,250)
- Sell 20 2024 $45 calls for $4 ($8,000)
That's net $7,250 on the $25,000 spread that's more than half in the money with $17,750 (244%) upside potential.
