Fabulous Friday Finish – Nasdaq Up 10% for the Month

What a nice 4 weeks it has been!  

As you can see from the chart, we’re up 10% in July and up 15.6% since we tested 11,000 (the Weak Bounce Line) in early June.  As we expected, AAPL has given us the final push we needed from big tech and AMZN helped as well last night and thank goodness INTC is now “little tech” because they are down about 10% this morning after a terrible report.

We had flipped bullish in our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) to take advantage of the dip and, since then, we have blasted higher but now we have to consider whether this rally is likely to continue or whether we should be locking in these gains while we can.  To do that, we need to consider what lies ahead.  

• • Covid  is at 130,000 cases per day in the US – that’s 15% (1/6) of our population annually – just under a very-concerning (again) 150,000 (20% of the population)
  • Putin could do something crazy – that’s a constant problem.  

1. 1. 1. 1. Oil is up at $98.55 at the moment and Nat Gas is $8.31 – could be worse, could be better.  

• • The Dollar is at 106 – easing off from the highs.  In fact, the Dollar fell 1.5% in the past two days and the S&P rose 4% – that strong correlation continues so we have to consider whether we think the Dollar will be stronger or weaker next week.  
  • Next week, we have Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and they’ve been running hot about 350,000 – which strengthens the Dollar as there is new demand for Dollars to pay new workers.  We will also get Consumer Credit next Friday and the reports from AXP, V and MA suggest this will be a strong number – also demands more Dollars.  

1. 1. 1. 1. PMI, ISM and Construction Spending on Tuesday
         2. PMI & ISM Services and Factory Orders on Wednesday

So the Dollar has no reason to pull back next week so how about earnings?  

• • Monday:  ATVI, AFL, CAR, SPG, RIG, VNO
  • Tuesday:  ARNC, BP, CAT, CMI, DD, RACE, HUN, IGT, JBLU, KBR, KKR, MAR, MLCO, TAP, PEG, SEE, SPWR, UBER, AMD, ABNB, CZR, CHK, DENN, EA, FNF, GILD, MSTR, OXY, PYPL, PRU, SOFI, SBUX, TEX
  • Wednesday: AMRN, BWA, BCO, CVS, EXC, GNRC, LL, MRNA, NYT, SMG, SUN, TUP, UAA, UTHR, YUM, ALB, ALL, BKNG, CLX, EBAY, ETD, FSR, IR, MRO, MED, MET, MGM, MTG, PAA, RYN, RCII, HOOD, TWO, WU, YELL
  • Thursday: APD, BABA, ATI, APO, CNQ, LNG, CIM, CI, COP, CEG, CROX, LLY, FIS, ITT, JCI, K, MIDD, NRG, PZZA, PARA, PENN, QSR, SEAS, SHAK, STWD, W, YETI, AMC, AMGN, BYND, CVNA, ED, DASH, EOG, EXPE, GPRO, LYV, LYFT, PLUG, PSA, RMAX, SWN, SU, SPCE, WBD, WYNN, YELP
  • Friday: CGC, CNK, DKNG, FYBR, GOGO, GT, WDC 

I don’t see any particularly derailing data but also nothing particularly good and the Dollar will rise so we can expect a pullback or flattening next week as earnings don’t look too dangerous but not too many big upside surprises are likely either.  

So it looks like we’ll be reviewing our Member Portfolios and looking for things we can cap (sell short calls against) – for income and protection and we’ll probably make some minor adjustments in the Short-Term Portfolio (STP) to get a little more bearish into the weekend.  If there’s an upside surprise – we have PLENTY of longs that will already benefit.  

Have a great weekend, 

• • Phil