Jobs, jobs, jobs.
We have 10.7M unfilled jobs in America at the moment and it is expected (by Economorons) that we added another 210,000 last month, which would be down from 263,000 in September but sub-reports have indicated a stronger number and that is NOT what the Fed wants to see and it may not be what the market wants to see either.
In reality, whether we created 160,000 new jobs or 210,000 or 260,000 makes very little difference when there are 10.7M jobs unfilled. The US workforce is 160M people so 10.7M open jobs means we’re 6.7% short on labor and that means our economy could be 6.7% bigger – which would add $1.67Tn to our GDP – that’s pretty impressive!
Unfortunately, rather than boosting the Economy, the Federal Reserve and other Central Banksters are looking to destroy it – to stop you from buying things and driving up the prices. I know it’s a radical concept but what if we just made more things? Then there would not be too much money chasing too few goods and services and inflation would subside AND we’d have a stronger Economy instead of a weaker one.
As the Lanisters like to say “Heads, spikes, walls.” If elected there will be a LOT of changes made to the way things are done around here. Meanwhile, as we wait to get past today’s data, we then have next week’s elections to worry about – that should be pretty dramatic as the lawsuits have already started flying and people haven’t even voted yet.
What happened to us? We used to monitor OTHER people’s elections to make sure they were fair – now we have rampant voter intimidation and insane levels of corporate sponsorship of politicians. $16.7Bn has been spent to see who occupies 2,000 political offices around the country – that’s $8.35M per office to get elected but, of course, it’s more like $30M for 435 Congressmen and 33 Senators and the rest on State-level races.
15% of that money comes from just 0.0001% of our population – our nation’s 2,300 Billionaires but it’s more like 45% because those figures don’t take into account the Corporations they control. And it’s a good investment, what’s $7.5Bn to people who got over $1.6Tn ($695M each!) richer during the pandemic or their Corporations, who have paid $2.4Tn less in taxes under the Trump Tax Cuts that are still on the books?
Wouldn’t you pay $7.5Bn to protect $4,000Bn of additional profits? And, of course, you are paying for it because our country runs a deficit, not a surplus – so all the money these Billionaires and Corporations don’t pay ends up being a National Debt you have to pay instead.
And all these politics are a scam anyway. The Republicans NEED the Democrats to scare the Top 0.0001% into giving them Billions of Dollars, the unused portions of which go to their personal accounts when they retire. As I said, “Heads, spikes, walls” – that’s my campaign promise!
8:30 Update: Oh noooooooooooooooo!!! 261,000 jobs added in October AND they revised last month up from 263,000 to 315,000 and the markets are back in panic mode as it means the Fed will be very angry and will continue to raise rates until they kill this damned Economy, once and for all.
We’ve already had two days of Fed panic so I’m seeing this as a buying opportunity. It’s not like Powell didn’t have these numbers in his pocket on Wednesday and THAT is why he said the Fed still has a long way to go in their quest to destroy the Economy. Remember, just because other traders and analysts have no idea how to interpret data properly, it does not mean you have to follow their lead when they panic over headlines.
We already flipped our Short-Term Portfolio (STP) much more bearish on Tuesday and we’ve been perfectly balanced on the way down this week and we’ll probably stay that way into the weekend. Next week does not have much data until Thursday, when we get CPI, which was 4% in September and Oil, Sugar, Beef, Lumber and Orange Juice have spiked since then and then we’ll see how that impacts Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
Earnings are still coming in fast and furious and we had a couple of bad days but today is back on track for 70% beats, which is a relief as last night was close to 50/50.
China is reopening a bit and that’s good for Oil, Metals and companies doing business there. BABA was on watch for being cut from the LTP but they saved it with good earnings last night and a 10% pop this morning. FCX will be having a good day along with RIO – those are our plays in those spaces…
Have a great weekend,
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- Phil
