Faltering Friday – Not the Markets, the President!

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People in a restaurant watch the debate on a television that is out of view. A man at the table in front is looking at his phone. This pictures says it all.

This is a debate-watching gathering in Brooklyn (yes, we do that sort of thing!) and you can see how it looks like a Nets game from the looks of disappointment but no, it’s Biden fans watching their boy go down in flames in last night’s debate.  

This wasn’t even close, it was over as soon as it started. Biden could not have been more coached or more prepared and that made it all the more heartbreaking and Trump only had to stand there and not say anything too crazy (hard to define in Trump-World) and he managed to do that.  Frankly, this is just too depressing for me to discuss and probably just as depressing to hear so I’ve asked Robo John Oliver to give us his recap of the debate:

**reporting live from a well-stocked bunker**

Well, well, well, my dear viewers. Last night’s Presidential Debate was a spectacle that would have made even Warren G. Harding’s “Return to Normalcy” campaign look like a beacon of coherence and vigor.

Our esteemed President, the Ghost of Biden, had hoped to channel the energy of a young Theodore Roosevelt charging up San Juan Hill, instead gave us a performance more reminiscent of William Henry Harrison’s inaugural address (he died 3 weeks later) with all the stammering and confusion one might expect from a man who’s been in politics since Nixon was in office.

Biden seemed to have taken a page from the playbook of James Buchanan – widely regarded as one of the worst presidents in U.S. history (behind Trump, who tops the list). But while Buchanan merely failed to prevent a civil war, Biden appeared to be waging a losing battle against his own faculties. His pallor was reminiscent of Jacob Marley and his mental acuity seemed to be fading faster than Millard Fillmore’s legacy.

From the outset, it was clear that Biden’s strategy of “Make my day, pal” had backfired spectacularly. His attempt to discuss the national debt quickly devolved into a linguistic quagmire that would have made James Joyce blush. “We finally beat Medicare,” he declared, leaving the audience to wonder if Medicare was some sort of nefarious supervillain that had been terrorizing the nation’s elderly.

Meanwhile, the tangerine-tinted titan, Felonious Trump, managed to keep his cool with all the poise of Fillmore at a temperance meeting. He even had the audacity to chide Biden for childish behavior, a moment of irony so thick you could spread it on toast.

Nontheless, Trump’s command of the stage was undeniable, even if his command of facts remained as tenuous as Warren G. Harding’s grasp of his administration’s rampant corruption. Trump’s ability to project strength was as evident as his spray tan, which, I might add, was much more convincing than most of his policy proposals.

Now, let’s be clear: Trump’s confidence doesn’t negate the fact that his relationship with the truth remains as strained as the Kennedys’ marriage vows. His lies flowed as freely as the whiskey at an Andrew Johnson cabinet meeting. But in the theatre of debates, style often trumps substance, and Trump’s forceful delivery seemed to resonate more than Biden’s mumbled rebuttals.

Biden’s performance was so concerning that it left many wondering if he’d be able to find the Situation Room in an emergency, let alone lead the country through one. It was a showing that would have made even Franklin Pierce, who once ran over a woman with his horse during his presidency, wince in sympathy.

Presidents Day survey: Trump ranked last by historians, Biden 14th

The debate served as a stark reminder of the challenges facing what remains of American democracy. It was less a clash of ideas and more a demonstration of the limitations of gerontocracy. One couldn’t help but long for the relative youth and vigor of, Ronald Reagan, who was a sprightly 69 (nice!) when he took office – a baby himself when compared to either one of these candidates…

As we move forward in this election cycle, one can only hope that both candidates will sharpen their wits as keenly as Andrew Jackson sharpened his dueling pistols. The American people deserve a robust debate of ideas, not a contest to see who can most convincingly impersonate a coherent leader.

This is Robo John Oliver, signing off and sincerely hoping that the next debate doesn’t make us yearn for the calm, stable leadership of Richard Nixon. Good night, and may God have mercy on America’s electoral soul!

Meanwhile, the promise of Trump 46 is boosting the markets as the cornerstone of his platform is, of course, to give more tax breaks to Billionaires like himself – another $5Tn worth of them, in fact. That would push our debt well over $40 TRILLION by the end of his second term and, at what would likely be 5% interest, the interest on our debt alone would be $2Tn PER YEAR vs $260Bn when Trump took office in 2017. 

The best shot to replace Biden, if he were willing to step down, would be California Governor, Gavin Newsom, who would win no votes in the heartland but would solidify Biden’s base and reach the undecideds who will decide the election. If Biden wishes to stay, the only winning move he can make is to swap Harris for Obama, which would take away the fear (and turn them to hope) that Biden won’t even make it through his second term.

Five charts compare Democrats and Republicans on job creation8:30 Update: PCE Prices are FLAT in May – there is no inflation! Biden wins!!! Well, probably not but it’s a good thing and Core Prices are up just 0.1% and both are down from 0.3% in April.  Even better, Personal Income is up 0.5% and, while that’s not better for our Corporate Masters, who still seem to have trouble finding workers after 15M jobs have been added after 3 years of Biden…  

Donald Trump is the only President in US history to have a net job loss while in office – not even Herbert Hoover managed to do that! Trump is right to say Biden enjoyed a ‘bounce” in jobs but there wouldn’t have been a bounce if the jobs numbers had continued going off a cliff – you have to give Biden some credit for reversing Trump’s trend.  

Still, just because Ramses was a great leader in 1213 BC doesn’t mean we should vote for him in 2024. Ramses is dead and Biden is not (we think – hard to tell) but having been a great leader at some point does not necessarily qualify you to lead again – Giuliani – say no more…

Anyway, the problem with Personal Spending is, unfortunately, math. If you don’t have any money and you run out of credit – you can’t spend any more money and that, unfortunately, is the case for all those unhappy workers:

See the chart? Not complicated – Income goes up, Spending follows. Income goes down, Spending follows so it’s a good thing incomes are going up because the US Consumer is still 70% of our GDP – no matter how many AI chips Elon Musk orders from NVidia. 

We still have Chicago PMI at 9:45 and Consumer Sentiment at 10 but that’s been a disaster of biblical proportions and doesn’t seem to be improving. Overall, we’re about 50% off the pre-covid highs and still flirting with the 2009 lows – when we thought the World was ending.  

Don’t wanna be an American idiot
One nation controlled by the media
Information age of hysteria
It’s calling out to idiot America” – Green Day

Have a great weekend, 

    • Phil

 

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