It’s just a jump to the left:
After a step to the right,the global electorate has jump back to the left, leaving Conservative parties feeling like they’ve stepped into a time warp of their own. Recent elections in the UK, France, and India have shown a shift that’s got right-wing politicians shivering with antici…pation of what’s to come.
In the UK, the Labour Party’s landslide victory last week has the Conservatives tangoing right out of power. France is flirting with a left-wing coalition that’s making the far-right feel like they’re at the wrong kind of party. Even in India, Prime Minister Modi’s usual political magnetism seems to have lost some of its pull.
So what’s causing this sudden urge to touch-a touch-a touch-a touch the left side of the political spectrum? Let’s break it down:
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- Economic Transvestism: The economy has been anything but sweet, leaving voters ready for a change.
- Healthcare Horror: The state of the UK’s NHS is scarier than any midnight movie.
- The Rocky Housing Market: Rising prices have turned the dream of homeownership into a nightmare.
- Immigration Time Warp: This dance has us all endlessly turning around until it’s hard to say what anyone stands for these days.
As to the pollsters in the UK: Their predictions were about as consistent as Dr. Frank-N-Furter’s life choices. Factors like underestimating youth turnout and failing to capture last-minute voter whims left them with egg on their faces. Free-range organic eggs, of course, this is Britain we’re talking about!
So what does this mean for the upcoming US election? Well, it’s not exactly the Science Fiction Double Feature we’re used to:
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- The Economy will take center stage, because money makes the world go ’round (or at least pays for the tickets).
- Healthcare debates will be hotter than Columbia’s shorts.
- Immigration will remain a Rocky subject.
- Polls will be viewed with more suspicion than an invitation to a castle in the middle of nowhere.
- Expect surprises – after all, in politics as in Denton, Ohio, anything can happen.
Remember, though, the US election is its own unique production, complete with the Electoral College – a system so Byzantine, it makes the plot of Rocky Horror look clear and straightforward.
While the rest of world seems to be taking that jump to the left, the US political landscape remains unpredictable – the Democrats don’t even know who their candidate is (and neither, it seems, does he!). So let’s all just breathe deeply, and remember – don’t dream it, be it… unless “it” is accurately predicting election outcomes. In that case, maybe stick to dreaming.
Now, onwards and upwards (as we can’t go lower than politics) to look at the week ahead where we have Consumer Credit this afternoon, Small Business Optimism (or lack thereof) tomorrow, CPI Thursday and PPI Friday – along with Consumer Sentiment – which has been an absolute train wreck. Powell speaks to Congress tomorrow – that’s a big deal and only 5 other Fed speakers but also the dreaded 10-Year Note Auction on Wednesday followed by the 30-Year on Thursday:
It’s also warm-up week for earnings, which officially kick off Friday as the big banks begin to report:
Get ready for mayhem!
