Russian airstrike against a Ukrainian children’s hospital reveals Russia’s eroding military might
An explosion rocked the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8, 2024. The explosion, part of a broader Russian missile attack on Ukraine, killed dozens of people. The sight of children fleeing the hospital grabbed international attention.
Ukraine immediately condemned the attack.
“It is very important that the world should not be silent about it now and that everyone should see what Russia is and what it is doing,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Likely due to the horrific nature of the act, Russia responded by arguing it was one of Ukraine’s own surface-to-air missiles that hit Ukraine’s biggest pediatrics facility.
But Russian armed forces striking a hospital would not be unprecedented in this conflict. Russia hit several hospitals earlier in the conflict, claiming that Ukrainian forces were using them for military purposes. Given the distance of the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital from the front lines, however, it is less likely that the attack was part of Russian strategy.
Obfuscation as strategy
British Prime Minister Winston Churchill once said: “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.” There will always be times when combatants must lie to bolster the war effort. Russia has taken this adage to heart, and uses lies to maintain domestic and international support for its war in Ukraine.
Immediate Russian counter-narratives to egregious military attacks is an established part of Russian strategy.
One of the most infamous examples of this strategy in action was the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. In July 2014, the passenger jet disappeared from radar while flying over eastern Ukraine.
One of Russia’s more infamous commanders in the region, Igor Girkin, claimed responsibility for the attack. He evidently believed the aircraft was a Ukrainian military plane when he ordered it shot down.
Moscow recognized the political ramifications of Russian-backed separatists shooting down a civilian airliner. It officially denied involvement in the conflict.
In the aftermath of the crash, Russian officials and media surrogates engaged in a systemic disinformation campaign. They proposed numerous, and at times contradictory, explanations for the crash. The goal of this strategy didn’t seem to be about promoting a single explanation of the crash. Rather, Russia created several theories to confuse and deflect from its obvious involvement.
Every state at war, including Ukraine, practises disinformation. What marks Russia’s efforts, however, is the systemic nature of its approach and the ability of authoritarian governments to conduct it at scale.
From the annexation of Crimea in 2014 to its interference in the 2016 United States elections and beyond, disinformation has allowed Russia to achieve foreign policy goals disproportionate to its stature on the world stage.
Domestic goals
Disinformation can serve domestic purposes as well.
If the missile attack against the Kyiv hospital was accidental, it would suggest Russian military capabilities are declining.
The efficacy of the economic sanctions imposed upon Russia is open for debate because Russia has successfully insulated itself against the worst effects. While Russia has maintained its armament production, it has had to replace many of the sanctioned military electronics with civilian ones of lesser quality.
These lesser parts, in turn, degrade the capabilities of the weapons, including making them less accurate.
The cruise missile that struck the children’s hospital, a Russian Kh-101, is normally one of the most sophisticated in Russia’s arsenal. That said, even before the sanctions took hold, Russian cruise missiles experienced high failure rates.
The imposition of sanctions, and Russia being forced to use less sophisticated parts, is aggravating this issue. The modernization of the Russian army, a key aim of Putin’s regime, seems stalled.
🚨New research paper | Assessing Russian plans for military regeneration: Modernization and reconstitution challenges for Moscow’s war machine
Authors: @MatBoulegue, @Justin_Br0nk, Karolina Hird, Jaclyn Kerr, @RALee85 and @Mi_Petersen38
Full text here:https://t.co/X7v5qTMIoH— CH Russia Eurasia (@CHRussiaEurasia) July 9, 2024
Military as a sign of strength
Putin, since coming to power, has made national pride in the armed forces a primary pillar of his government. Commemoration of the Red Army’s role in the Second World War, as well as various holidays for the different branches of the armed forces, provide occasions to stoke nationalist sentiment.
Putin’s focus on the armed forces has reached such an extent that the country opened a theme park dedicated to the Russian army, Patriot Park, in 2016.
The performance of the Russian armed forces in the war in Ukraine, however, has left much to be desired. The Russian army is now performing considerably better than it did at the start of the invasion. But its efficacy, and even its recruitment, leave considerable room for improvement.
Those recruitment problems are such that Russia has resorted to tricking people in India and elsewhere to join the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.
Russia has committed egregious and criminal actions in Ukraine.
It’s easy to assume that Putin and the Russian military directly ordered each incident. This belief, however, is not always the case. Rather, the strike on a children’s hospital was likely, from Putin’s perspective, something much worse: a sign of declining military performance.
James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
