It’s been 1,000 days since Putin invaded.
This is what happens when you let something fester – the infection gets worse and now it’s spreading so it ends up being a lot worse than if you had taken decisive action on day one. Now we’re talking about Nuclear Escalation as Russia has just dramatically lowered its threshold for using nuclear weapons, coming just days after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use US-supplied missiles to strike inside Russia.Â
In just the past few days Russia launched one of its largest attacks of the war, with 120 missiles and 90 drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. That’s a 44% increase in attacks since Trump’s election but Trump isn’t President yet and President Biden (remember him?), has responded by allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles on Russia so Putin has now updated Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine.
Instead of limiting Nuclear responses to “threats against Russia’s existence“, Russia can use nukes if they feel there’s a “critical threat” to their “sovereignty and territorial integrity.” That’s like changing the rules of a fight from “only hit back if someone’s trying to kill you” to “feel free to shoot someone if they look at your parking.“
And then there’s former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, who helpfully clarified that under this new doctrine, Russia now has “the right to retaliate with weapons of mass destruction against Kyiv and key NATO installations, regardless of location.” Which is exactly the kind of measured, responsible statement you want to hear from a nuclear power.
US Corporate Media has not been covering this situation – yet – so let’s look at how various countries are reacting to this situation: France and Poland are backing the US decision to let Ukraine hit back inside Russia. Germany’s saying “Nein” to providing long-range missiles and Hungary and Slovakia are hiding in the corner calling everything “incredibly dangerous” which, to be fair, is probably the most accurate assessment of the situation.
The new Russian doctrine now includes an expanded list of triggers for nuclear retaliation, including:
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- Detection of incoming missiles
- Massive launches of strategic planes
- Cruise missiles crossing the border
- Drone attacks
- Hypersonic vehicle detection
- Leaving the toilet seat up (possible mistranslation)
Russia has basically turned its nuclear response policy into one of those medical commercials where they list every possible side effect. “May cause nuclear winter, extinction events, and in rare cases, dry mouth...” but, of course, Russia has always been the country that cried “Nuke!“
The most alarming part is that Russia now considers attacks from non-nuclear states backed by nuclear powers as a “collective assault.” In other words, if Ukraine uses US-supplied weapons to strike Russia, Putin might decide that’s technically NATO attacking Russia. That’s like kids egging your house and you blow up the supermarket they bought the eggs from. Â
This is NOT just political theater or diplomatic posturing – we’re watching Nuclear-Armed Nations edge closer to direct conflict than they have in decades. The last time tensions were this high, we were doing “duck and cover” drills in our school. Â
Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, has explicitly linked these changes to US policy, warning that it could mean “NATO countries and US are at war with Russia” and that’s the kind of thing that we SHOULD be paying attention to, instead of what homecoming dance Matt Gaetz will be attending next week (turns out it’s OK, because it’s not statutory rape if you pay the girls by Venmo – MAGA!). Â
We’re watching a dangerous game of escalation where the stakes couldn’t be higher. Ukraine has every right to defend itself, and the West has compelling reasons to support them. But when nuclear powers start changing their doctrines to make it easier to justify using their arsenals, that’s not just concerning – it’s terrifying!
And maybe the scariest part is how we’ve somehow normalized this situation. We’re living in a world where former Russian president Medvedev can casually threaten to nuke “key NATO installations, regardless of location,” and it barely makes the Corporate News in the US (go ahead, look for it).Â
The path we’re on is unsustainable, and not in the usual “we should probably recycle more” kind of way. It’s a bit more like “civilization as we know it hangs in the balance.” We’ve got Russia launching its biggest attacks of the war while simultaneously making it easier to justify using Nuclear Weapons next week and we’ve got the US giving Ukraine the green light to strike inside Russia – using our ballistic missiles and we’ve got various European countries either cheering this on or watching in horror – sometimes both at the same time…
The numbers tell the story: 120 missiles and 90 drones in a single day of attacks. A 44% increase in Russian strikes since Trump’s election. Ten dead in Odesa, including children. And perhaps most chillingly, a Nuclear Doctrine that now includes more triggers than a Twitter comment section.
This is all about Trump, who floated giving Ukraine up to Russia in the campaign and that turned out to be unpopular so now Russia escalates the threats to make it seem like a reasonable solution when Trump takes office and appeases Putin by sacrificing the 37M remaining Ukrainians on the altar of “peace in our time.”Â
When someone changes their “When is it okay to use nuclear weapons?” policy to basically include “Whenever we feel like it,” that’s not politics – that’s playing Russian roulette with civilization and I mean that literally, because Russia is actually involved this time.
There are no easy answers here. Ukraine has every right to defend itself, and the West has valid reasons for supporting them but we’re rapidly approaching a point where one miscalculation, one misinterpreted drone strike, or one overly aggressive response could spiral into something none of us want to contemplate and, most terrifying of all – this will all end up in Donald Trump’s hands in 63 days (Jan 20th).Â
