Speculation: A Phone Call That Could Happen

SCENE: A top secret communications room in the White House. 

TIME: Next week.

NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNICATIONS OFFICER: Secure satellite phone connection via Starlink established and confirmed. Sir, the next voice you hear will be that of President Putin. Go ahead, please, Moscow. 

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Donald? 

DONALD TRUMP: Vlad! It’s great, really great to hear from you.

PUTIN: Same here, and may I congratulate you for your total and complete victory. Your digital coin, very interesting development.

TRUMP: Vladimir, nobody’s ever seen anything like it. The most successful coin in history, maybe ever. People are saying it’s tremendous.

PUTIN: We have interest in large purchase. Very large. But Donald, situation with NATO … it complicates things.

TRUMP: Horrible organization, NATO. Horrible. They’re not paying their fair share, never have. These European countries, they’re laughing at us.

PUTIN: If you publicly question Article 5, perhaps we discuss bigger coin purchase. Much bigger.

TRUMP: The biggest. And you know what? NATO’s obsolete. Always has been. We’re looking at all our options, and people are going to be very happy with what we do. Very happy.

PUTIN: Good, Donald. We start with 50 million in coins. Maybe more after NATO statement.

TRUMP: Beautiful. Just beautiful. You’re going to love these coins. Everyone loves these coins.

You have to give it to the president, this is 3D grandmaster chess corruption vs. the checkers corruption Democrats have been playing. 

More Speculation: A Call That Could Have Happened

SCENE: Phone conversation at 1236 Longworth H.O.B., the office of Speaker of the House Emerita Nancy Pelosi

TIME: Last week.

NANCY PELOSI: Paul, that firm you mentioned last week — the health-care AI one — what was the name?

PAUL PELOSI: There’s a few. The one that’s received the most press is Tempus AI.

NANCY: I was in a Medicare briefing today, and they are planning on pouring substantial resources into AI-driven diagnostics and care management. I believe Tempus was on their list. 

PAUL: Understood. I’m on it.

It was disclosed on Tuesday, January 21, that Representative Pelosi, and/or related parties, had purchased between $50k and $100k of call options on Tempus AI, Inc. (TEM). That day, the stock registered the biggest one-day gain in its history, surging 35%.

These are each their own flavor of corruption. I respect the Trump grift more than the plain vanilla trading on material nonpublic information. It’s more creative, and if you’re going to abuse the public trust, you should do it for billions vs. millions.

For Sale

America has just put out a “for sale” sign, and every corrupt government and company around the world has taken notice. 

Instead of Russia offering Trump cash for abandoning Ukraine, it might be one side in Sudan’s civil war, which, though you don’t hear about it much here in the U.S., is the bloodiest ongoing conflict in the world. 

Or maybe one of the makers of Red Dye No. 3, recently banned for use in food by the FDA after it was found that high exposures caused cancer in rats, will offer to put some money into $TRUMP if the president finds his veto pen. 

During his first term, Trump owned a hotel in D.C. that was patronized by rich people, governments, and businesses who wanted something from the federal government. $TRUMP coin is more elegant: a vehicle that gives parties a discreet, easy way to pay off the president of the U.S. Think of the coin as a price discovery tool for bribery, a mixture of eBay and PayPal for corruption. 

$TRUMP and $MELANIA are such obvious grifts, they embarrass one of the most shameless communities in our economy: the crypto bros who backed his candidacy. CNBC host Ran Neuner accused the presidential family of “grifting at the expense of the entire crypto community.” It’s likely that, as the grift dust settles into a Category 5 hurricane of indefensible losses (e.g., $MELANIA shed two thirds of its value in five days), Congress will be less amenable to the legislation the community has been advocating for. Just as my generation has pulled future generations’ prosperity forward for our benefit, via deficit spending, Trump is borrowing massively against the increasing credibility of the asset class to enrich himself and light the sector on fire. 

Citizens (Dis-)United

We shouldn’t be surprised. The U.S. has been on this road since the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United, which took limits off campaign spending by corporations and other groups. The court held that existing restrictions violated the First Amendment, equating the ability to spend money on campaigns with the right to free speech. The result has been a deluge of corporate cash into our elections. Any small inhibitions or shame politicians may have felt about selling themselves to the highest bidder disappeared. Trump is doing loudly what other politicians do quietly. Now that he’s been reelected he’s not even pretending. The Washington Post claims that “democracy dies in darkness.” Maybe. What’s more apparent is that capitalism (competition, rule of fair play, trust in markets) dies in the full light of day. As Dylan sang, “Money doesn’t talk, it swears.” Right now, it’s telling the American public to go fuck itself.

Tik Tik Tik (Tok)

Last year, Trump decided to ignore the real national security concerns that had been voiced about the app. TikTok became politically useful to him, and Jeffrey Yass, one of the largest shareholders of its Chinese parent company ByteDance, gave $100m to GOP groups.

TikTok now has about 2 billion global users and about 170 million in the U.S. ByteDance is required by law to turn user data over to China’s Ministry of State Security on demand. According to Pew Research, about 40% of young Americans now get their news from TikTok. The app is a neural jack connecting Beijing with the wet matter of America’s youth. A 14-year-old American spends approximately 14 hours a week on the platform. Think about this: a full day every week on a platform influenced by the CCP. Would we have let the Kremlin own CBS/ABC/NBC in the sixties?

When Trump’s efforts to make ByteDance sell during his first term failed, he signed an executive order banning TikTok, which was later overturned in court — he needed a law. Last year, then, Congress debated and overwhelmingly approved, and President Biden signed, the “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act,” which gave ByteDance until January 19 of this year to sell to a non-Chinese buyer. ByteDance fought the law in court and lost. On January 17, the Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the law was constitutional. 

Then January 19 came, and TikTok shut down in the U.S. — for a few hours. TikTok returned from the dead almost immediately, as ardent TikTokers, with the aid and encouragement of ByteDance, posted and protested that a ban would deprive them of their free speech rights and/or their livelihoods. This is ground zero for why we should ban it. A social media app used by half of Americans and controlled by an aggressive foreign rival just confirmed it can spin up millions of citizens, particularly young people, to influence important government policy. TikTok (i.e., the CCP) will do this again. If China invades Taiwan, TikTok is the propaganda tool Radio America never dreamed of. It’s much easier to fool Americans than to convince them they’ve been fooled.

Blink

On his first day back in office, Trump signed an executive order delaying the ban for 75 days, saying he wanted to engineer a deal that would give the U.S. half-ownership of the app. “If I don’t do the deal it’s worth nothing,” he said. “If I do the deal it’s worth a trillion dollars.” 

This is not a new concept — there’s even a word for it: socialism. Socialism is when the state controls the means of production. America has proven, in spades, that the full body contact of competition creates more economic growth than the government cosplaying a business. Whether it’s the U.K. investing in DeLorean or Obama propping up Solyndra, it usually doesn’t end well.

Unserious

One of my favorite moments in Succession was when Logan Roy told his children: “You are not serious people.” He knew his kids were expectant and lacked the real-world skills and backbone to make good on their threats. We risk our allies, adversaries, and trade partners sensing that we, too … are not a serious people. 

Better Seats

I’m not entirely sure how we got here, but I think it has something to do with the way money and business success have become so venerated in our culture. More money used to mean a better meal on a plane; now it’s a (much) better life. Just as we always find uses for additional bandwidth and energy, our consumer economy never runs out of incentives to amass more money. 

I’m taking my son on the Eurostar (which has three ticket classes) to see a Paris Saint-Germain F.C. game where there are the seats we bought (£220), plus 11 higher categories, including ones with access to an indoor restaurant, heated seats, and a player meet & greet before the game (that’s £3,500). My first (real) date, with Maureen Burke, was in the 11th grade. I took her to see Springsteen at the Great Western Forum. Nosebleed seats were $12, and seats in the front 5 rows on the floor were $48. We sat in the $12 seats. i) I had no money; and ii) I thought it was super cool — “look how high up we are!”

More recently, for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, the “It’s Been a Long Time Coming” VIP Package would set you back $899. However, it did include a VIP parking pass, merchandise, and a dedicated entrance. For perspective, on an inflation-adjusted basis, premium tickets to Swift cost 5x what Springsteen did 42 years ago. This is all to say that not only is our government increasingly corrupt, but also: Being a teen in 1982 was … better. But that’s another post.

Whores

The most disappointing thing about our elected officials is not that they’re whores, but what cheap whores they are. For his $250m investment in Trump, the wealthiest man in the world was able to increase his purse by $140b (56,000% ROI). The increase in wealth had nothing to do with the performance of his businesses, but the market’s belief that we are now in a kleptocracy and the distinction between winners and losers is no longer about innovation but proximity to power. The polar vortex of corruption is here, as greater incentives, fewer guardrails, and the sense that character is no longer valued in America have cast a chill across capitalism. 

Money has not washed over just our government, but also what has traditionally been a powerful check on corruption, the media. ABC’s Bob Iger sold out and settled rather than fight a lawsuit Trump brought over George Stephanopoulos’s on-air remark that Trump had been “found liable for rape,” a suit that looked very winnable for ABC. Jesus, Bob, really? FYI, the judge in the case also used the R word. 

Many are now afraid of confronting Trump and First Lady Elonia, not because they think they might wrong them, but because they are worried about the aggravation and expense of being sued. In the end, the media and the citizenry are making a money choice when what is called for is a moral choice. (See above: Bob Iger.) For people who are not economically secure, it’s upsetting but understandable. For Bob Iger, it’s shareholder value colliding with cowardice. Last year the Disney CEO made $41m. But I’d argue he is increasingly impoverished.

The latest race to the bottom is blanket pardons. After Biden preemptively pardoned his family, Trump granted “a full, complete, and unconditional pardon” to all January 6 defendants, including Enrique Tarrio, the former national leader of the Proud Boys, who was convicted and sentenced to 22 years in prison for seditious conspiracy, and Julian Khater, who pleaded guilty to pepper-spraying Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick in the face. Sicknick suffered several strokes and died the day after the attack.

Dawg 2028

There’s a rumor on Reddit that I’m running for President in 2028. That fits — I do possess the key attributes (wealth, narcissism, outdoor plumbing). Should I be victorious, I pledge to the American People the following: a full and unconditional pardon of all UCLA alumni, Great Dane breeders, and owners of Damn the Torpedoes (vinyl). Together, we will make America Tom Petty again.

Life is so rich, 

P.S. Hear more on my thoughts on $TRUMP and what’s next for TikTok on this week’s Prof G Markets. Listen and subscribe here on Apple podcasts or here on Spotify.

P.P.S. Join Section for a conversation with LinkedIn founder and OpenAI founding investor Reid Hoffman on making ourselves superhuman with AI. It’s next Wednesday. RSVP for free here.