DIS is already in the Butterfly Portfolio - that's a good place for them as well.
(Oh, I'm reviewing our recent best value ideas from our research this week.)
PLTR I'n not going to chase but Zephyr's note that they are being used for data analysis and Government surveillance was a game-change for my opinion of them.
UPS - Winner! As noted yesterday in our Webinar, this is a "Fire Your Customer" situation with AMZN and it's freaking people out for the wrong reasons as AMZN is not a profitable 25% of UPS's business and phasing out 12.5% over the next 12 months will give them plenty of time to replace the revenue with contracts they can actually make a profit on.
In the LTP, our UPS position is not that big and we're down about $35,000 on this drop so it's going to be fixed to the point where it's more like a new position - so take note if you need it:
We have 20 short 2026 $150 puts we sold for $27 and that's net $123 and UPS is at $113.50 - so not actually tragic. The 2026 $150 puts are now $39 and that's net $111, so the premium has burned off. So step number one is to roll our 20 short 2026 $150 puts at $78,000 to 30 2027 $130 puts at $28.50 ($85,500), which puts net $7,500 in our pocket and obligates us to buy 3,000 shares at $130 ($390,000 - $30,015 in net portfolio margin) vs our original promise to buy 2,000 shares at $150 ($300,000). Effectively, we've promised to buy 1,000 more shares for $90.
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- So, as a new trade, it's 30 short UPS 2027 $130 puts at $28.50 ($85,500)
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Then we have 20 UPS 2026 $100 ($18.20)/150 ($1.90) bull call spread at net $16.30 ($32,600) which we originally paid net $43,000 for (not counting the short puts).
