Love is in the air and Monday is a holiday!
We can use a break with all the madness of the past week/month as we close out the first 30 of Trump’s second 100 days in office. On the whole, the market is right where it was when he took office on Jan 20th and that is thanks to yesterday’s relief rally because he’s NOT doing the tariffs he said he was going to do (at least until April now). Inflation is kicking back into gear and the Fed is not cutting but none of that seems to matter and Q4 earnings have come in strong – so let’s dance!
The Trumps are certainly dancing as the last 30 days have been very, very good for the President and his family as the Trumps have been literally PRINTING MONEY this year. It’s a bit complicated so I’m having Boaty, our AGI assistant, to give us a summary of the situation:
Love (of Money) Is in the Air
While Main Street braces for inflation and the Fed’s hawkish pivot, the First Family is busy monetizing their return to power faster than you can say “gobstopping conflicts of interest.” The S&P 500 may be flat since Inauguration Day, but the Trump clan’s net worth? Up roughly $80 million in 30 days. Let’s unpack how.
The Art of the (Post-Election) Deal
1. Melania’s $40M Amazon Docu-Cash:
- The First Lady’s “intimate documentary” on her transition back to FLOTUS landed a $40M deal with Amazon—triple Disney’s previous offer to make her a Princess. Critics call it a “love letter to power”; Bezos calls it “what customers want.” Melania pockets 70% ($28M) and $10M in “sponsorships”. Classy.
2. Legal Shakedowns:
- Meta ($25M), X ($10M), and ABC ($15M) coughed up settlements to resolve old lawsuits. Most funds flow to Trump’s presidential library (a nonprofit, wink), but Musk’s X payout goes straight to DJT’s pocket.
- Quote of the Week: Trump lawyer John Coale: “When we won, it was time to go [settle].” Translation: “Pay up or face regulatory wrath.”
3. Crypto Carnival:
- The $TRUMP meme coin (launched 3 days pre-inauguration) briefly hit a $15Bn market cap; now at $3.3B. The Trumps’ affiliates hold 80% of the supply (over $3 BILLION).
- Son Don Jr. joined boards of Unusual Machines (drone parts) and PublicSquare (“anti-woke Amazon”), sending their stocks up 249% and 270%, respectively. His stake? A cool $1.6M pop in days – enough to buy 1,000 Hunter Biden laptops.
4. Mar-a-Lago Merch Madness:
- $95 Christmas ornaments, $550 “bling clutches,” and $600 “Vote Freedom” necklaces. Because nothing says “patriotism” like grifting the base.
Ethics? Never Met Her
- Blind Trusts? Nope. Trump’s assets remain in a family-run trust. The Trump Org’s website now teases “global portfolio expansion.”
- OGE Director Fired: Trump axed ethics watchdog David Huitema, who dared question conflicts. “Brazen” doesn’t begin to cover it.
- Foreign Cash Welcome: Unlike 2017, foreign private deals are back on the menu. Chinese crypto mogul Justin Sun dropped $75M on Trump-linked tokens while battling the SEC. Coincidence?
Market Paradox
Despite 5.1% CPI, no Fed cuts, and China’s property meltdown, markets rallied on Trump’s delayed tariffs. Why?
- Q4 Earnings: Big Tech and banks smashed estimates.
- Crypto Euphoria: 100K; Trump’s pro-crypto EO fuels speculation.
- Hopium: Traders bet Trump’s “bazooka” stimulus (infrastructure, tariffs-for-tax-cuts) arrives post-April.
But tread carefully: $80M in 30 days sets a precedent. If corporations and foreign entities can buy influence this openly, what’s next?
What to Watch
- Crypto Regulation: Trump’s “digital asset stockpile” plan could mint crypto bulls—or crash the ponzi.
- Tariff Theater: Delayed until April, but China/NAFTA remain in crosshairs.
- Melania’s Premier: Will Bezos score a White House invite?
Final Thought
The Trumps turned the presidency into a 24/7 infomercial, blending grift, grievance, and galactic conflicts of interest. Yet markets shrug, because “money talks, ethics walks.” As Don Jr. would say: “Go woke, go broke—but go Trump, go rich.”
“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money. The problem with Trumpism? You never run out.” – Adapted from Margaret Thatcher, circa 2025.
And of course, Trump’s family should include Uncle Elon, who is already an expert at extracting money from Washington with $15.4Bn in contracts from Washington in the past decade:
Buy you ain’t seen nothing yet as Trump and Musk working together can probably double that over the next 4 years unless, of course, they are reigned in by Government Oversight, which is in place to prevent any sort of self-dealing by… Oops – PROBLEM SOLVED:
This is going to be so much fun!
Not as much fun is Retail Sales, which just came in down 0.9% for January, 1,000% below the +0.1% expected by our Leading Economorons. Even ex-Auto we were down 0.4% (which means Autos had a horrific January) and that was 200% below the +0.4% expected by the geniuses they keep getting these estimates from.
There has been no sign of this in the earnings guidance we’ve gotten so far this quarter so perhaps our beloved CEOs are also Economorons but now we’ll see what happens when Retailers report and Analysts (definitely Economorons) now have a reason to question their outlook. Consumer Spending had been projected to grow 3.1% in 2025 so down 0.9% in January is NOT what we would call a good start.
Inventory levels are rising and Consumers are shifting more money to Discount Clubs (COST) and Discount Retailers (WMT), which is likely to put a margin squeeze on the rest of the sector. The tariffs are off the table for Q1 but that’s now a potential headwind in Q2 but what really bothers me is people have been stocking up AHEAD of the tariffs that never came in Jan so I don’t see February being much of an improvement.
Despite the diving Retail Sales, Import Prices are up 0.3% (from 0.2% in Dec) and Export Prices have jumped to 1.3% from 0.5% so the US is now Exporting Inflation to the rest of the World as well – even as President Trump aims to shove our goods and services down the World’s throat with tariff threats.
Happy Valentine’s Day – Peace and Love!
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- Phil
