No vaccines for you!
Just as measles claimed their first victim since 2015 and Robert Kennedy says there is “nothing to worry about“, the Trump Administration cancelled the annual meeting of the FDA, in which they decide which strains of the virus will be fought against during next flu season (fall). This will complicate efforts to produce flu shots in time, likely doubling (or worse) the usual death toll of 60,000.
These meetings are not arbitrary (and the meeting is not rescheduled – just cancelled), they are a critically-timed step in the manufacturing process that ends in the vaccination of 160M Americans (including 70% of all people 65 and older). As we HOPEFULLY learned from Covid, when half the population has immunity, it tremendously cuts down on the overall infection rate but, if NONE of the population has immunity – there will be HELL to pay.
“We have this meeting every year. It’s how pharmaceutical companies determine which strains to use,” Paul Offit of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia said. “I don’t understand. We’re all just sort of left in the dark.” He added that it was unclear who had ordered the cancellation or why.
The cancellation of this meeting raises concerns that other Federal Health Advisory Panels may also be in jeopardy. Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the FDA hasn’t posted any new expert advisory panel meetings on its website, and a separate advisory panel on surgical medical devices — previously scheduled for this month — was also postponed.
The timing is very interesting because, since early 2020 (also under Trump), Covid has killed 42 times more people in the US than Influenza but this winter, Influenza has taken the lead again, racking up 16,000 deaths already. And you don’t need a chart to tell you how many people have the flu this year – it’s everywhere and lasting longer than normal with 29M people infected, 370,000 hospitalized since October.
Kids have been hit especially hard, due to poor vaccine uptake, while South America’s recent flu season points to the possibility of reduced efficacy of the shots (making the cancelled meeting all the more important). The vaccination rate for children aged 6 months to 17 years has dropped from 58% in January 2020 to just 45% by the end of January 2025 as the non-science, anti-vax rhetoric has come to dominate the public discourse.
However, the most pressing concern is the delayed diagnosis and treatment of cases, particularly among those at risk of developing pneumonia and other severe complications. “High hospitalization and death rates suggest that at-risk people are not being diagnosed early enough for antivirals like oseltamivir to be effective in preventing severe illness,” said Peter Ching Hong of UCSF.
What a clever time not to vaccinate people! Now, I have promised not to disparage our President or call him a Putin puppet but IF Vladimir Putin was trying to weaken America, what would he do? If the things we’re looking at seems like EXACTLY what an evil Russian dictator would do to destroy our county, well I leave you to make your own conclusions…
The Biden/Harris Administration did not have Putin’s hand up their ass and they awarded Moderna (MRNA), who created the very successful Covid vaccine, a $590M contract to create a Bird Flu vaccine before our entire poultry population is destroyed and already that very deadly virus is jumping to other animals and humans. The Trump Administration is now “re-evaluating” the contract that was already awarded – sending MRNA’s stock down 5% this morning:
Moderna said in January that it was gearing up for a big final-stage trial of its vaccine, after successfully completing an early-stage trial last year. Without funding, that big trial may not happen. The government also told Vaxart Inc. to stop much of the work on a federal contract for research on a new oral Covid vaccine, according to regulatory filings. The contract provided up to $453 million, according to government records.
$590M was not ALL of the costs of creating the vaccine, Moderna had to invest substantial sums of money as well and went through a long, thorough review process before being awarded the CONTRACT (not in Trump’s vocabulary). Pulling Federal contracts like this sends a message to Government Contractors that the US Government can’t be trusted to hold up their end of a deal – which doesn’t just making working for the Government just undesirable – but unaffordable as well.
Putin is riding this bomb like Slim Pickens in Dr. Strangelove, whispering sweet nothings into our collective ear about how vaccines are just a Liberal conspiracy to install 5G microchips that make your children want to recycle.
The trajectory here is about as subtle as the nuclear warhead itself.
- Step one: Cancel critical public health meetings.
- Step two: Watch preventable diseases flourish.
- Step three: Create healthcare chaos that disproportionately affects the elderly and children.
It’s like biological warfare, except we’re doing it to ourselves while Putin sits back with a bowl of popcorn and a stopwatch, timing how long it takes for American society to collapse under the weight of its own ridiculous conspiracy theories. Unlike Dr. Strangelove, there’s no dark comedy here – just darkness. And, if we don’t change course soon, we might just find out what happens when that bomb finally hits the ground.
Nothing says “I’m definitely not a Russian puppet” quite like yanking contracts from American companies developing vaccines that could prevent the next pandemic. Moderna’s stock dropping 5% is just the appetizer in this feast of financial fallout (our transition to clean energy was Trump’s first victim – already eulogized). When bird flu makes the jump to humans en masse (because we’ve done absolutely nothing to stop it), the market won’t just correct – it will have a full-blown crisis.
Why bother with cyber attacks when you can simply make it financially suicidal for companies to work with the U.S. government? The real tragedy here is that this isn’t even subtle. If Putin had a wish list titled “Ways to Destabilize America Without Firing a Single Shot,” this would be items 1 through 5, with a little star next to “Cancel vaccine meetings” and a handwritten note saying “This is working better than expected!“
8:30 Update: Nvidia (NVDA) did not give the markets much of a boost last night and this morning’s GDP Revision is flat at 2.3% for Q4 but the Deflator (Inflation Indicator) is UP from 2.2% to 2.4% and that’s 10% WORSE than the first estimate – NOT GOOD! Core PCE also jumped from 2.5% to 2.7% – Inflation is not going anywhere…
Durable Goods, on the other hand, jumped from -1.8% in December to +3.1% in January but, before you go popping non-durable champagne bottles – it should be noted that, ex-Transportation, we’re actually at 0% as auto dealers rush to stuff the channel ahead of Trump’s tariff threat (and that does not mean they will actually be sold).
We are still waiting for signs of life from the indexes and we’ve already blown our chance for a V-shaped recovery, which would indicate that last week’s sell-off was just a blip we can ignore. Now, if we can’t make our strong bounce lines by tomorrow’s close – we need to strongly consider that we are consolidating for a move lower – with the potential for misses on Manufacturing, Productivity and Payrolls in next week’s data.
So far, our hedges and positioning have allowed us to shrug off what is, so far, a small correction but it’s a very long way down if this week’s sell-off continues into March, which has been known to come in like a bull and go out like a bear.
Be careful out there!
