Upcoming Tariffs & The Money Talk Portfolio (3/26/2025)
Timeline:
0:00 Oil trade setup and rationale for shorting at $70
0:38 Commodity trading conditions and evaluating oil short opportunity
0:56 Reviewing API oil report and data significance
3:55 Analysis of resistance at $70 and setting up short entry
5:24 Technical analysis using pivot points and standard deviations
7:33 Market reaction to tariffs and implications for NASDAQ/S&P
8:17 EIA report data vs API; oil price expectations and 5% Rule
9:12 Applying 5% Rule to oil pullback and bounce levels
11:05 Profit-taking strategy based on technical retracement zones
13:04 Confirming oil price behavior aligns with technical expectations
15:22 Larger time frame oil analysis and confirmation of setup
16:05 Risk/reward profile and decision-making process for oil trade
17:34 Summary of trade logic and selectivity in commodity futures
20:01 Index drop linked to Trump tariff news and market instability
23:06 Historical context for tariff levels and policy comparison
26:04 Tariff uncertainty and its disruptive effects on investment
27:12 Economic impact projections: recession, inflation, and earnings
29:27 Investment strategy and balancing long/short positioning
30:39 Bullish W-patterns and potential market recovery setup
33:34 Portfolio performance, cash management, and hedging
36:10 Review of positions across $700/month and Money Talk portfolios
37:49 Inflation, tariffs, Fed policy, and misinterpretation of “transitory”
39:22 Wealth inequality, tax under-collection, and national debt
41:14 Retaliatory tariffs and global response to U.S. trade actions
42:36 Global EV growth and copper demand trends
45:26 Copper price trajectory and confirmation of long-term thesis
47:58 Wealth distribution charts and implications for tax policy
51:04 Reagan-era tax cuts and their long-term effects
53:20 Debt vs. wealth distribution and fairness
54:44 Proposal for wealth redistribution and fixing inequality
57:25 Corporate tax avoidance and systemic manipulation
58:47 Effects of inequality on society and risk of social unrest
1:01:04 Redistributive policy ideas and government role
1:03:07 Historical parallels: Slavery, revolution, and collapse of elites
1:11:15 Apple analogy for wealth inequality and public resentment
1:14:57 Tools of oppression: education, distraction, and suppression
1:16:45 Potential economic fallout from cutting Social Security
1:19:40 Transition to trade execution and current top trade alerts
1:21:10 Portfolio additions (Micron, Disney, Whirlpool, etc.)
