Peter Zeihan: Half a Million Immigrants Get the Boot & Auto Tariffs and the Art of Routine Vehicle Maintenance

The Immigration Setback: Labor, Legality, and Long-Term Consequences

By Peter Zeihan

I’m speaking today from a hotel room, short on time but focused on a major development from the past 24 hours. On March 24th, the Trump administration rescinded legal status for approximately 530,000 immigrants—primarily from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Haiti. This action poses two major problems: a labor crisis and long-term damage to legal immigration systems.

The Labor Crisis

First and foremost, the United States is experiencing a severe labor crunch. Unemployment is at record lows, and we urgently need workers to double our industrial capacity in preparation for the anticipated collapse of China’s economy. That includes a surge in construction work—a field where most American citizens are reluctant to participate. The immigrants in question had been legally brought into the system through the Biden administration. They weren’t just undocumented border crossers; they had registered with authorities, undergone interviews with the Department of Immigration, and secured financial sponsors.

These individuals were properly vetted and integrated into the workforce. In effect, we had already done the hard work of onboarding them—background checks, documentation, financial ties. Then, at the last moment, this decision abruptly removes them. Unless they have already moved forward in the process, they are now expected to leave. This is an enormous waste of time, money, and effort, and it hits especially hard at a time when we are desperate for labor.

The Legal and Social Fallout

The second problem concerns legality—not the authority of the president to make this decision, which is clear—but the broader implications of revoking legal protections from people who have followed all the rules.

Legal immigrants are part of the formal economy. They can open bank accounts, own property, enroll in healthcare, and send their children to school. They can rely on law enforcement without fear. But when people are pushed into illegality, they shift into the cash economy. They become targets for crime because others know they can’t safely go to the police. In this environment, public safety and trust break down.

By penalizing over half a million people who followed legal procedures, we’re sending a dangerous message: that obeying the rules may not be worth it. The next group of migrants will likely avoid legal channels altogether. This only accelerates a longstanding issue in American immigration policy.

A Policy with Precedent—and Consequences

The last meaningful reform of legal immigration frameworks occurred during the Reagan administration in the 1980s. Since then, we’ve failed to give would-be migrants a reliable incentive to participate in the legal system. Recent events will only deepen that distrust. Just within the past month, the Trump administration also began arresting migrants—who were already working through the system using the CBP One app—on their way to their court hearings. They were detained and deported before their cases were even heard.

This is likely to result in a new surge of illegal immigration and the growth of a marginalized underclass. We saw a preview of this during the first Trump administration. Ironically, the construction of the border wall—specifically, the roads built across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts to enable construction—made illegal crossings easier by compromising what were previously formidable natural barriers.

So, as we look ahead, the next wave of migrants will likely arrive within a year or two, once they’ve learned how to navigate this new, more hostile system. And this time, they’ll do it without engaging with legal channels—because we’ve just shown them there’s no reward for doing so.