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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Top Trade Alert – Oct 6 2022 – Total Energy (TTE)

TTE - Another company I love. The oil company that wants to be green! We only old them because they made us too much money last time and now they have grown into their $131Bn market cap ($50.50) with $35Bn dropping to the bottom line this year and $28.8Bn projected next year and even if they are wrong by 50% - it's still a p/e below 10! "Only" $22Bn in debt would knock $1Bn off earnings but they are European so I bet they already figured that in.

T otalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022

I love these guys. They are using their many Billions in profits to transition Europe to a Net-Zero Future.

Key features of our 2022 scenarios

Key modeling drivers of our scenarios

Significant growth of low carbon power generation

World Oil & Natural Gas

That's what I keep telling you - essentially no growth in oil demand from here on and then it's all downhill from 2030 on (just 7 years away!).

EU27

World Power demand and generation

World energy-related CO emissions                          2

A decisive decade for the energy system

TTE is gung-ho to invest in a very different energy future and will be miles ahead of their competitors for many years. I like the strategy and the outlook - they are going to change the World and make lots of money doing it!

Key findings of T          otalEnergies Energy Outlook 2022

https://charts2.finviz.com/chart.ashx?t=tte%20\&p=w&s=y

For the LTP, let's:
  • Sell 15 TTE 2025 $45 puts for $7 ($10,500)
  • Buy 25 TTE 2025 $40 calls for $15.50 ($38,750)
  • Sell 25 TTE 2025 $55 calls for $9 ($22,500)
That's net $5,750 on the $37,500 spread so there's $31,750 (552%) upside potential at $55 - which does not seem like a tough target as we just bounced $5 in two days. This is one I'll probably regret we didn't buy more but better to start small than have regrets if the economy sours.

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