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Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Top Trade Review – Q4 2022

I'm sorry we haven't had too many Top Trade Alerts in the past quarter but there simply weren't that many trades I felt sure enough about to make them a Top Trade. 

We pride ourselves on the winning percentage in our Top Trade Alerts and, for the last Q, we were 100% on the winning side so quality over quantity and I have no regrets.

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TSLA Jan 27 2023Congrats to all who played along 

On December 29th, we sent out a Top Trade Alert to our Members and you can read the whole thing but the gist of it was that this was the first time we went long on TSLA (it had been our favorite short) since it was $50 many years ago.  The Trade Idea we had on the stock was a spread that was a bit more aggressive than the 150% Trade Idea we had discussed that Tuesday 

"Speaking of bullish plays: On Tuesday we discussed TSLA but we didn’t make it official. So, for the LTP, let’s:

    • Sell 10 2025 $85 puts for $20 ($20,000)
    • Buy 30 2025 $100 calls for $57 ($171,000)
    • Sell 30 2025 $125 calls for $46.50 ($139,500).

That’s net $11,500 on the $75,000 spread with $63,500 (552%) upside potential at $125. It’s a lot more aggressive than Tuesday’s trade, which paid 150% at $80 but we can always roll down to something like that if things don’t turn around for TSLA."

We hit the dead bottom on that trade (getting the best prices) and already, not even 30 days later, TSLA is back over $160 after earnings that crushed expectations (not ours) and both trades are on-track to making their full 150% and 552% returns, respectively.  In fact, the more aggressive Top Trade is already up $20,000, which is a gain of 172% on our $11,500 outlay in less than a month!  

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