Well, SPG has gotten to the point where I don't think it can be ignored. At $64.25, their $8.40 dividend is almost 15%. Yes, they own shopping malls (BOO!!!) but they are generally top-tier ones and a lot of weak ones are going to fail, driving more traffic to the survivors. They just announced they are opening 49 (out of 230) malls starting May 1st, checking people's temperatures and requiring masks. They will also limit it to 1 person per 50 sq ft of space and that's a lot more crowded than malls have been in the past few years anyway. 
They just bought 80% of TCO (24 malls), taking advantage of their troubles.
| Year End 31st Dec | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | CAGR / Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
$m
|
4,871 | 5,266 | 5,435 | 5,527 | 5,645 | 5,755 | 5,231 | 5,464 | 3.39% |
|
$m
|
2,416 | 2,798 | 2,669 | 2,677 | 3,215 | 2,806 | 3.04% | ||
|
$m
|
1,409 | 1,828 | 1,839 | 1,948 | 2,440 | 2,102 | 2,225 | 2,385 | 8.33% |
|
$
|
4.43 | 5.88 | 5.87 | 6.24 | 7.87 | 6.81 | 9.00% | ||
|
$
|
4.33 | 5.47 | 6.04 | 6.64 | 6.94 | 7.14 | 6.91 | 7.54 | 10.5% |
|
%
|
+29.4 | +26.2 | +10.5 | +10.0 | +4.42 | +2.97 | -3.33 | +9.12 | |
|
x
|
8.01 | 8.28 | 7.59 | ||||||
|
|
0.908 | 0.945 | |||||||
SPG is $20Bn at $65 so roughly 10x usual earnings and mostly they will still collect those rents. Some stores will go bust but they'll replace them so the hits will be limited unless the virus is much worse than we think it is.
In the LTP, we're happy to get 1,000 shares cheaply so we can sell 10 2022 $45 puts for $14 ($14,000) and consider that free money with a net $31 entry.
