November 14th, 2007 at 9:33 am | Permalink edit
LVS – I remain concerned about a drop into expiration, unless they break $120 I’m not anxious to roll them.
Bernanke is boring us right through the open.
Googlefly – need to take out the $650 putter for $1.95 XXX
Phil
November 14th, 2007 at 9:36 am | Permalink edit
Now Googlefly should be Just the remaining $670 puts at $7.60 and we are down about $5 so selling at $12 is a very good idea.
November 14th, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink edit
BIDU – nice short here with the $350 puts at $4.55, DD at $3 and hope for tomorrow kind of gamble. XXX but risky.
November 14th, 2007 at 9:50 am | Permalink edit
I’m really not buying this rally guys.
Good airline info, thanks Ali!
Why is MER going down? ANF going down, GM down, GOOG going down, this rally is fading fast!
November 14th, 2007 at 9:50 am | Permalink edit
Don’t be greedy with GOOG, that was a VERY lucky escape for us. XXX
November 14th, 2007 at 10:00 am | Permalink edit
AAPL J170/N165 – Mission accomplished on getting the premium off the guy, now be patient. If Apple breaks $180 it’s a problem but not until.
Oil patch rallying, almost everything else looking weak. GS very surprising turn down but BSC is the one to watch to see if people are really buying this nonsense.
That LVS problem is taking care of itself but WYNN is falling faster.
LOL Fredrang – that’s just what I’m talking about. You can’t trust the market when it acts like it doesn’t understand the data that’s being presented.
VNO and BXP with big turns down, something is up…
OIH looking weak. $190 puts are $5.45, stop at $5, looking for $7+ XXX
November 14th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit
Gold plays making a comeback. You can’t fool gold, they know inflation when they see it! Gold flew to $815…
BIDU – no reason to exit, those targets are just the point to set a serious stop but you can up that stop .50 per dollar. If they break $356 they may charge down $340 puts are risky but fun at $4.30. XXX You want to stop at $3.50 and get out if they bounce off $356 anyway.
November 14th, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink edit
What Bernanke said was good but we’ll see what the follow-through is like. Meanwhile that was not what the rally monkeys expected him to say and we’re not holding up too well.
SPWR on the move! CROX doing well. Energy and financials holding up the market.
Nigerian rebels – oh I forgot about them, they’ve been off duty since $80. I guess now we’re going to be defending $90 by any means necessary…
November 14th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink edit
BIDU – weak bounce off resistance, if they go up again it’s more likely another short opportunity but over $359 for now should take them up to $365 again.
November 14th, 2007 at 10:34 am | Permalink edit
CMG – I wouldn’t short them. If the market rallies they could fly as they are in the right (low) end of the food chain.
C – November calls? If longer, I’d hold – there’s an announcement in 1/2 hour re. Thain but, if Nov, take it off on a rumor spike and roll to Dec but don’t risk it all on this.
BIDU broke through!
November 14th, 2007 at 10:46 am | Permalink edit
Just bear in mind that Nov mo plays are useless when they turn on you with just 2.5 days left so DO NOT be greedy with them, when it turns, you’re done.
BIDU $356 – that was about the top of Monday’s afternoon consolidation (they gapped down on Tues but head faked to $367 at the close).
November 14th, 2007 at 10:52 am | Permalink edit
ISRG cranking.
Oil inventory tomorrow.
Buyers trying to rally.
November 14th, 2007 at 10:59 am | Permalink edit
GOOG negative! BIDU may melt too, along with eveything else…
November 14th, 2007 at 11:08 am | Permalink edit
We could be moving towards a flatline into expiration so think about move you see in terms of possible pinning at this point. Sell-off is getting broader but mild on the whole (at the moment).
November 14th, 2007 at 11:12 am | Permalink edit
BIDU testing yesterday’s highs at $341, failure there would be soooo bad for them. So bad in fact, that the FXI becomes shortable. FXI $185 puts at $3.20, stop if BIDU takes $350 back. XXX
November 14th, 2007 at 11:25 am | Permalink edit
I’m watching AAPL now, if they lose it we’ve got a problem.
November 14th, 2007 at 11:57 am | Permalink edit
ETFC nearly at $6!
Taking out DNDN caller – sure for .03, not worth the risk. Unlikely they have bad news.
BIDU – I wouldn’t reenter unless they fail the day’s high, $366 again. These things are much more fun when you don’t try to guess the middles.
AAPL $175 should be safe and if it hits $180, so what, you pay +2 for your position $5 in the money.
AAPL Apr/Dec – I hate, hate, HATE being more than one bracket out of the money to a caller so my goal would be anytime I can roll him up $5 for $2, do that (as long as he is covering me at least 40%, which this guy is not), any time I can roll myself down $5 for $2.20, do that until I’m within $5 of him. Obviously more fun to roll yourself down than roll him up. When there are crazy runs up and down you get offered all sorts of deals.
Now the market is looking up, let’s see how far it goes.
TSO hit our sweet spot on the $10KP and $25KP plays! Hopefully they can stay there.
NYX – Yes I do like them for a leap.
November 14th, 2007 at 12:04 pm | Permalink edit
BSC accused of “improper trading” according to CNBC. I wonder if they’ll go back down.
NYX – Yes I do like them for a leap.
November 14th, 2007 at 12:21 pm | Permalink edit
I love Herb Greenberg – his take on the Fed data is “Oh great, more data for people to misinterpret.”
Meanwhile NYX having a bad day.
SHLD – holding this stock without selling calls is madness!
Don’t forget nothing has changed since this morning. let’s take this move with a grain of salt but we need to let the market tell us whether to buy or sell rather than force it.
MER hired Thain!
November 14th, 2007 at 12:38 pm | Permalink edit
SHLD “safe” play. Jan ‘09 $100s for $36.80 and Jan ‘09 $160 puts for $45.05 = $81.85 for a $60 guaranteed return. Sell Dec $120 puts for $6.45 and Dec $130 calls for $4.40 (I’m bullish) which puts you in for net $71 with 12 sales left to go. If you convert 6 of 12 sales for $10 that’s better than 80% return.
Someone asked yesterday what happens if it gets away from you: Well let’s say it shoots up to $170 tomorrow. Your caller is dead, your ‘09 puts would be worth about $15 (the value of the current ‘09 $110s) but probably more with the higher V. Your $100s would be worth about $80 and you would owe your $120 caller $50 for a net loss of about $17 in that castastrophic situation (assuming, of course you shut it all down there and ignore the 12 months of sales you still have left). Once you get past your 3rd month of sales, providing you keep the money with the trade, a blow-out like that would only be an annoyance and never a catastrophe.
Of course the assumption is you get hit like that overnight and have no chance to recover and I certainly hope anyone who’s been here a while knows — there is Always an Option!
November 14th, 2007 at 12:50 pm | Permalink edit
Faster than CNBC – well, I don’t have to confirm my sources! 
I stand by my BIDU call that this will be a failed run at the day’s high followed by a bigger sell off. I’m hoping it hits $364 and we can pick up the $350 puts for $7 or less. VERY IMPORTANT – when you are playing a thinly traded stock like this, ignore the ask and put in something on the low end, at the bid or just below – there’s a reason that’s the bid, people are getting it.
Of course it helps to be ahead of the curve a bit so it’s good to scale in so if I want 40 $350 puts for $7 or less and I’m willing to lose $1.50 I buy 10 at $8, 10 at $7 and 20 at $6 for a $6.75 basis (and the stock is at $6 by then) with a stop at $5.25. Obviously, once the mo play goes my way I stop buying. If I make 20% on just 10 contracts, I’m thrilled. The trick is to get used to guessing the turn and buy just before. I don’t do this robotically, if it really breaks up on me I may stop out but stopping out of 10 with a $3 loss is way better than stopping out of 40 with a $1.50 loss!
NYX – we need to wait but they will be a great buy on an irrational sell-off.
Index leap spreads – I do with FXI and I will with the Dow or SPY if we’re flatlining but otherwise they are too dull for me.
That was a bad rally, most things notched down overall, not up.
November 14th, 2007 at 12:59 pm | Permalink edit
GM – that would be great for them if they weren’t GM! This is a company that invented an engine that doesn’t need to be tuned up for 100,000 miles and they couldn’t sell that. You know the expression “That guy could sell ice to eskimos”? Whatever the opposite of that would describe GMs marketing since 1960. I’ve mentioned before, Kirk Kirkorean is a very sharp man who works with a very sharp group of people and he was given a full-access backstage pass to GM for 4 months and, at the end of that time, with GM at $30, he ran away screaming – this does not give me the warm fuzzies as a place to invest my money.
Covering 40% – 40% of the value of my long contract. That’s a goal you should shoot for. It’s generally unobtainable early on but, as you reduce your basis by selling, you should be able to line that up on most of your trades. That turns it into a play you really don’t have to watch.
AAPL – I have not rolled my callers yet.
November 14th, 2007 at 1:19 pm | Permalink edit
GIGM – wow, that is a fun little play! $20 puts at .40 XXX for fun.
November 14th, 2007 at 1:33 pm | Permalink edit
ELN $22.50s at .75 – I don’t know why but XXX
November 14th, 2007 at 1:42 pm | Permalink edit
I have no idea what’s up with them but it didn’t fill and I don’t want it on the way down, I switched to a 2/1 spread of Dec $25s/Nov $22.50s (net .50).
November 14th, 2007 at 2:16 pm | Permalink edit
BA – I think any time they don’t get all the orders at this point is a disappointment. Very silly as they are booked solid through 2012.
Selling BIDU calls – too dangerous because of the way China can spike. The $380s for $3 are almost certainly a winning trade but it ties up a lot of margin that I’d rather use elsewhere.
GIGM – I just liked the risk/reward on the puts, not a particular call against the company. When did those earnings come out?
AAPL – that’s right but not now! The numbers are totally different.
Verical spreads – I just prefer to keep maximum flexibility. I will sometimes roll a bad spread to a vertical but once you do that, you are pretty stuck with the play until the bitter end.
ELN – it’s always something with those guys.
November 14th, 2007 at 2:30 pm | Permalink edit
GS – At this point there’s no benefit to giving up the insurance unless you want to roll yourself to 2x the Jan 230s at $23 (+$4 per current contract) and roll him to 2x the Dec $240s for $13 (+$17 per each of his current contracts). That would put $13 in your pocket and give you a nice $10 spread with a month in between the positions and you have $10 more to roll him down if it turns south. Since you can roll yourself down for $6, you could be back in the Jan $200s before you hit any serious trouble (and that’s 2x the Jan $200s).
November 14th, 2007 at 2:35 pm | Permalink edit
I know this will come as a shock but there was a $1 spike in oil into the NYMEX close – finished at $94 even!
DIA puts – for December you go $3 now. It’s $2 for within 3 weeks and add about $1 per 3 weeks. That is not a rule, just an approximation. Error on the side of being closer to the money.
November 14th, 2007 at 3:00 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU condor, I like those plays but they are margin prohibative for most people.
STP – Chinese solar in a week that’s already volatile – it could go up or down $20 and either would be bad for you. I prefer to play a crush when I’m 90% sure it will flatline after earnings.
November 14th, 2007 at 3:01 pm | Permalink edit
Oh my with GOOG!
I dont’ know what’s keeping the Qs up but now would be the time to short them. XXX
November 14th, 2007 at 3:02 pm | Permalink edit
Game on with BIDU $340 puts of course!
November 14th, 2007 at 3:19 pm | Permalink edit
BIDU – don’t hold overnight, Novs can evaporate in seconds! That’s why I’ve been keying on BIDU all day, they’ve gone into a fairly predictable channel and those close calls can really move!
November 14th, 2007 at 3:27 pm | Permalink edit
GOOG – hey remember that save all you Nervous Nellies couldn’t wait to get rid of? $670 puts are now $27.10!
November 14th, 2007 at 3:47 pm | Permalink edit
Wow GOOG down $20! How eaily things turned ugly. Sad to be right about the morning but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore all the problems, especially as they seep across all sectors.
November 14th, 2007 at 3:55 pm | Permalink edit
FXI tanked nicely in the end.
